catalan elections

On Sunday, Catalans are being called to give their opinion about independence in a participatory process, organised by the Catalan Government in cooperation with more than 40,000 volunteers and many town halls, which replaces the original consultation vote also scheduled for the 9^th of November. The Spanish Government appealed against the first vote, the Constitutional Court suspended it, the Catalan Government launched an alternative process and the Spanish Government filed a new appeal, accepted by the Constitutional Court. However, this time the non-binding participatory has been maintained with a wide consensus among Catalan institutions a wide representation from the civil society. These are the three last steps of an intense self-determination process, which started with the approval and trimming of the Catalan Statute of Autonomy and was shaped by four massive demonstrations and a series of "no" and threats by the Spanish authorities. Here is a summary of the main milestones of this process before the massive pro-independence demonstration of 2012.

Carme Forcadell, President of the civil society organisation Catalan National Assembly (ANC), stated that if citizens are able to cast their vote on November 9, the participatory process will already be "a success". However, she warned that "nobody can guarantee we will be able to vote on November 9 because the Spanish State will use all the resources against the freedom of expression" of the Catalan people. In fact, she pointed out that there have already been "threats" sent by the Spanish Government to members of the Catalan Executive, volunteers and high-school directors. "It's very important that the world knows our situation", she highlighted. Nevertheless, she hoped that Catalans will be finally able to vote on Sunday. "The 9^th of November is very important [as] it is one step forward towards independence", she emphasised. However, a clear democratic mandate will come from early Catalan Parliament elections.

Josep Maria Vila d'Abadal, the President of the Association of Municipalities for Independence (AMI), wanted to reassure the mayors that have offered municipal venues to host polling stations on Sunday, particularly in small towns and villages where the Catalan Government does not have facilities of its own. "Mayors do not have to be afraid of anything […] because their legal coverage is guaranteed" stated Vila d'Abadal, who is also the Mayor of Vic (a city in Central Catalonia). He also announced that the AMI – which co-organised the massive pro-independence demonstrations of 2012, 2013 and 2014 – and the Catalan Association of Municipalities will send a letter on Friday reassuring mayors. According to Vila d'Abadal "the future of Catalonia […] as a people" is at stake on November 9. According to him, after Sunday's vote, the most likely scenario is the one leading Catalans towards independence.

Joanquim Coll, Vice President of Societat Civil Catalana – whichis the main pro-Spanish unity civil society organisation– accused the President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, of "cheating everybody" with "this so-called participatory process" scheduled on November 9. In an interview with CNA, Coll foresaw "a great frustration for those Catalans who believed in Artur Mas' promise of being able to vote on November 9". In addition, "for the wide majority of citizens", November 9 "will not represent anything since the majority of Catalans neither wanted to participate in the first consultation vote, nor in this so-called participatory process", he argued. The unionist spokesperson hoped that "before the 9^th […] the rule of law and the principle of democracy must prevail". However, "after the 10^th, [we need] dialogue, dialogue and more dialogue", he concluded.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, announced on Wednesday that next Monday he will send a letter to the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, to assess November 9's participatory process and to offer a negotiation for organising a definitive referendum on independence. Mas made such an announcement the day after the Constitutional Court suspended November 9's vote and after the Catalan Government confirmed that the participatory process will still take place on Sunday. The Catalan President emphasised that November 9's vote "is not a referendum to declare independence" and he said that those making these declarations "are lying". Mas emphasised he has respected the suspension of the original consultation vote, launching a citizen participation process instead. "If such a process cannot be carried out in a normal way, then Spanish citizens should think about Spain's democratic quality", he concluded.

More than 200 elected members of the European, Spanish and Catalan Parliaments and municipal councils from Catalonia have presented and started to sign on Wednesday an international complaint against the Spanish Government that will be sent to the United Nations, the European Parliament, the European Commission, the Council of Europe and Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). They are formally accusing the Spanish Government of "violating the right of the Catalan people to decide on its own political future" and "banning the exercise of democracy ". They list reasons of democratic legitimacy, stress the sustained self-determination demands and highlight the manifold Catalan attempts to negotiate and hold a legal vote. They also emphasise the Spanish Government's total blocking attitude and they announce that Catalan representatives "feel legitimate to launch all the necessary political and legal actions". Finally, they also ask those international organisations to act in order "to guarantee that Catalonia's citizenry can democratically decide on its future".

On Friday, the Swiss bank UBS issued a certificate stating that Xavier Trias, Mayor of Barcelona, does not and has never had any account with them, contradicting the accusations launched at him by Spanish nationalist newspaper 'El Mundo' on Monday which mentioned sources from the Spanish Home Affairs Ministry. Trias, who supports Catalan independence from Spain, strongly rejected the accusations of having €12.9 million in a secret bank account in Switzerland on the very first day they were published and he cautioned against dirty tricks from the Spanish Government. In addition, the Mayor also announced a judicial complaint against the newspaper and he said he would ask for such a certificate. On Tuesday, 'El Mundo' insisted on the accusations and it even published the UBS bank account number on its front page, while Trias filed the judicial complaint. Now, after UBS guaranteed that he has never had and does not have a bank account with them, Trias is asking for the resignation of the Spanish Home Affair Minister.

According to a poll by the Centre of Opinion Studies (CEO), run by the Catalan Government, 49.4% of Catalans would vote "yes" to both parts of the question "Do you want Catalonia to become a State? If yes, do you want to become an independent State?" In addition, 12.6% would vote "yes" to the first part and "no" to the second, meaning they would back a Catalan State within a federal or confederated Spain. Finally, 19.7% would vote "no", meaning they back the current 'status quo' or they want recentralisation. Therefore, 32.3% of citizens would be against independence. However, such a poll cannot be used to predict results for November 9's alternative consultation vote, stated the CEO, since the census is not the same and many people from the "no" side are expected not to vote in the alternative participatory process.

The President of the Catalan Government and leader of the centre-right pro-Catalan State CiU, Artur Mas, and the President of the left-wing Catalan independence party ERC, Oriol Junqueras, met on Wednesday, after days of tensions among the parties supporting self-determination. The tensions have been mainly about how to raise the legal profile of the alternative participatory process scheduled on the 9^th of November, which replaces the original consultation vote, and about a common platform to run in early elections transformed into a 'de facto' referendum on independence. According to Junqueras, the two leaders decided to work on making sure that the alternative consultation vote is "a success". In addition, he said that Mas had requested that he leave the debate about the early elections for the days after the 9^th of November's vote, despite Junqueras insisting on an immediate electoral call.

938 of the 947 existing municipalities in Catalonia will host polling stations for the alternative consultation vote on independence scheduled for the 9^th of November, which replaces the original non-binding referendum. According to the Catalan Government, this represents 99.9% of Catalans being able to vote in their own neighbourhood, town or village, without having to go to a nearby municipality. The Catalan Government will be using its own venues to host the polling stations (mainly high-schools), but it lacks them in small towns. For this reason it requested that town halls cooperate and make municipal venues available for voting. 4 additional municipalities could be added to the final list. In addition, civil societies and parties will be able to campaign in 305 Catalan Government's venues between the 30^th of October and the 8^th of November.

The international rating agency Moody’s analyses the current political situation in Catalonia regarding the alternative consultation vote scheduled for the 9^th of November and the potential early elections. Moody’s considers that early Catalan Parliament elections are the most likely scenario, emphasising the Catalan Government’s commitment to respect the legal framework. In addition, it also considers “a common platform” with which pro-independence parties would run in the elections to be the most likely outcome. On top of this, Moody’s predicts the victory of such a common platform and that Catalonia would be in a “strong” position to negotiate a better fiscal deal within the current Constitution. However, in such scenario, Moody’s does not consider independence. In this vein, Catalonia’s credit rating is likely to improve while Spain’s would worsen.

The Catalan National Assembly (ANC) and Òmnium Cultural, which are the civil society associations that organised the massive pro-independence demonstrations in 2012, 2013 and 2014, have given their support to the alternative consultation vote proposed by the Catalan Government but on the condition of early elections taking place within the next three months. On Sunday, the ANC and Òmnium gathered 110,000 people (according to Barcelona local police) in Catalunya Square, three times more than the pro-Spanish-unity demonstration that took place in the same place a week earlier. In front of a pro-independence crowd, the two civil society organisations demanded unity of action from the parties supporting self-determination. They called for "a massive mobilisation" in the alternative participatory process of the 9^th of November, being "the first round" of the early elections, which should become a 'de facto' referendum on independence.

After the cancellation of the original consultation vote scheduled for the 9^th of November, parties are preparing for hypothetical early elections, transformed into a de facto referendum on independence. The parliamentary stability alliance between the governing centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU and the opposition left-wing Catalan independence party ERC is seriously damaged. This affects the approval of the Catalan Government's budget for 2015 and a potential electoral alliance in such a plebiscite on independence. CiU, formed by the Liberal CDC and the Christian-Democrat UDC, and social-democrat ERC were the three main parties within the pact for the consultation vote scheduled. As preparations for the 9^th of November would have required breaking Spanish law, tensions between them were raised. After the pact was broken, there have been efforts to work together again on different fronts, while UDC is looking for new allies.

The Catalan Government is gradually disclosing details and starting preparations for the alternative consultation process on independence that will take place on the 9^th of November, which replaces the consultation vote also scheduled on that day. Meanwhile, the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, celebrates "the excellent news" about the Catalan Government abandoning the previous consultation vote, which had been temporarily suspended by the Constitutional Court. The Spanish Government and the People's Party (PP), chaired by Rajoy, would not want to raise the profile of the minor new vote by acting strongly against it. It seems they are hesitating whether to appeal against it or to tolerate it, in spite of Catalans still being called to cast a ballot about independence from Spain in a non-binding participatory process.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, ruled out the consultation vote already called for the 9^th of November and agreed upon among a majority of Catalan parties, in face of the opposition from the Spanish authorities. However, he announced an alternative "participatory process" on that same day, in which 20,000 volunteers throughout Catalonia will run the polling stations, located in Catalan Government venues, and people would register just before voting. Mas believes that this new vote does not openly challenge the Spanish authorities' ban, while it is an alternative way to vote on the 9^th of November, as promised. However, he also admitted that such a process is not comparable to a proper referendum and stated that "the definitive referendum" would be early Catalan Parliament elections, where parties would transform it into a plebiscite on independence. The first reactions have been sceptical, both in Barcelona and Madrid.