catalan economy

In February, prices in Catalonia increased by 0.2% in monthly terms but decreased by 0.8% in annual terms, according to figures released on Thursday by the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE). The inflation rate in Catalonia has been in negative territory for the last 4 months, despite the improvement in February. The monthly increase in fuel prices has been the main factor behind February's positive figures. In Spain as a whole, prices also increased, by 0.2%, over the last month but showed a 1.1% decline in annual terms. Spain's annual inflation rate has been negative for the last 8 months. Therefore, there is a serious risk of deflation, which could represent a threat by making it more difficult to pay back debt.

Catalonia exported €56.87 billion worth of industrial products last year, which represents a 3.5% increase on 2013’s figures, according to data released on Wednesday by the Catalan Statistics Institute (Idescat). The exports of high-technology products reached €5.58 billion, a 6.1% growth on figures from the previous year. These were also the type of product which experienced the greatest increase in exports during 2014, mostly thanks to sales from outside the European Union, which increased by 10.9%. Such an important boost also meant that sales outside the EU were larger than exports to other European Union Member States. The international sales of medium-high range products reached €28.27 billion, a 2.8% growth on 2013 figures.

The average price of houses and flats in Catalonia was 2.2% higher at the end of 2014 than at the end of the previous year, according to the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE). At Spanish level, housing prices increased by 1.8% in 2014. It is the first time since 2007 that housing prices have increased both in Catalonia and Spain as a whole. In quarterly terms, the price of flats and houses in Catalonia increased by 0.6% between the end of September and end of December. At Spanish level, they increased by 0.2% in the same period. The recovery of the real estate market is a particularly strong indicator of the economic recovery in Catalonia and Spain, especially taking into account the collapse of the construction sector during the years of economic crisis.

At the end of February 2015, there were 581,124 people registered with the Catalan Public Employment Service (SOC) as being unemployed, according to figures released on Tuesday by the Spanish Ministry of Employment and Social Security. This represents 1,645 fewer jobseekers than were registered at the end of January (582,769), a 0.28% drop. In addition, at the end of February 2015 there were 48,462 fewer registered jobseekers than a year ago, which marks the largest annual decline for registered unemployment in the last 17 years for a February month. This represents a 7.7% fall in the last 12 months. The data released on Tuesday shows an encouraging trend for Spain as a whole as well, since registered unemployment fell by 13,538 people in monthly terms, a 0.3% drop. In annual terms, the Spanish labour market posted a 6.24% drop, with 300,333 fewer registered jobseekers.

Catalan GDP grew by 1.3% in 2014 and will increase by 2.5% in 2015, claims Barcelona’s Chamber of Commerce. “The Catalan economy had a very good performance in 2014, even better than that of Spain as whole, and this acceleration will continue during 2015”, stated the President of the Barcelona Chamber of Commerce, Miquel Valls, on Wednesday. The day before, the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, announced a revised economic forecast for 2015 and stated that Spain’s economy would grow by 2.4% in 2015. Valls highlighted that all the macroeconomic indicators show positive figures for the first time in the last 7 years, which makes him think that Catalonia’s “recovery from the crisis is a fact”. The industrial sector, exports, construction and job creation are the main reasons behind those predictions, which also benefit from external factors such as the fall in oil prices.

According to a recent study published by the Swiss research centre, IMD World Competitiveness Centre, Catalonia would be the 38^th most competitive state in the world if it were independent. The list, headed by the United States, shows that an independent Catalonia would be 2 places above Spain, which currently occupies 40^th position (including Catalonia). The report highlights the strengths of Catalonia such as business efficiency, as well as the weaknesses, which stem from certain inefficiencies of the public sector. Apart from focusing on quantitative indicators, the study also has a section that is based on qualitative surveys of a country’s companies. Catalan executives consider Singapore, Germany, Ireland and the UAE to be the most lucrative for business development and ranked Catalonia 24^th on the list, which is 21 places above Spain.

A day after the President of the Catalan Government and leader of the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, Artur Mas, announced his plan to further develop the so-called state structures before the 27 September elections, the leader of the left-wing Catalan independence party ERC, Oriol Junqueras, has once again requested to be part of the Executive and sit in Cabinet. Junqueras justified his request in order “to guarantee the indispensable state structures”, such as Catalonia’s own tax administration and Social Security system. The embryonic frame of such structures should be created before the next Catalan elections, which will be called early and will be transformed into a ‘de facto’ referendum on independence from Spain. On Tuesday, Mas had already ruled out the possibility of the ERC sitting in Government and, on Wednesday, the Catalan President stressed that the current Cabinet will only be in office for the next 6 months.

Exports from Catalonia increased by 3.1% in 2014, reaching €60.2 billion, meaning that more than 30% of the Catalan GDP is sold outside of Spain. Furthermore, Catalan exports grew more than those of Spain as a whole, which increased by 2.5% last year, reaching €240 billion. This means that 25.1% of all Spain’s exports come from Catalonia’s economy, some way ahead of the Madrid region, which produces 11.7% of Spain’s total exports. In addition, the growth rate of Catalan exports was much higher than the Eurozone average (exports from which grew by 1.8%) and also higher than that of EU Member States such as France (-0.2%), UK (-11.1%) and Italy (+2%). The figures posted this Wednesday confirm the good health of Catalonia’s export sector and the high degree of internationalisation of its economy.

For the first time in seven years, the number of houses and flats being built in Catalonia has increased. The figures for 2014 show that between 4,300 and 4,500 new properties have appeared on the market after seven years of decline. According to Lluís Marsà, President of the Promoters Association of Barcelona, the housing market is recovering due to the improving economy. Marsà says there is still one big obstacle remaining to consolidate the recovery of the sector: “The lack of bank financing which keeps people from purchasing new housing.” While this is a positive development, the housing market has still a long way to go. According to Marsà, “it will probably take 3 or 4 years to fully recover.”

Prices in Catalonia dropped by 1.4% in January compared to the figures for December, which represents the biggest monthly decrease ever registered on the records of the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE) (since 2002, when comparable data started to be compiled). Furthermore, the annual inflation rate posted at the end of February reached -0.9%, which is the lowest figure since July 2009, in the middle of the first economic recession. The sustained decrease of oil prices is the main reason for such results and Catalonia has now accumulated 3 consecutive months with negative rates within the Consumption Price Index (IPC) in annual terms. In Spain as a whole, prices dropped by 1.6% in monthly terms at the end of January, which is also the biggest decrease within the series of comparable records. Furthermore, Spain’s annual inflation reached -1.3%, the lowest since July 2007. 

In 2014 in Catalonia, not only has there been a rise in the number of overnight hotel stays but also a substantial growth in the number of visitors. Hotel figures show 50,018,636 overnight stays last year, a 1.5% increase over 2013. Catalan hotels received a total of 16,754,342 visitors, an increase of 3.4% over last year. The Catalan tourism infrastructure played host to 62% foreign residents (10.3 million) and 38% (6.3 million) of residents from Spain. December is increasingly becoming an important month as the number of overnight stays climbed to around 2 million (1,983,259), which represents 6.1% more than the same month in 2013 and the highest rate ever recorded for this period of the year. Catalonia remains above the average rate for Spain, as its occupation rate is 56.2%, whereas that of Spain overall is 54.8%.

Another positive figure has emerged to confirm the economic recovery after years of crisis. Catalonia’s GDP grew by 1.2% over the course of 2014, which are the best figures since 2007, before the financial crisis, according to early data released on Thursday by the Catalan Statistics Institute (Idescat) and the Catalan Finance Ministry. The figure is higher than the 0.9% economic growth foreseen in the Catalan Government’s budget for 2014 (approved in late 2013) but is lower than an early forecast made in March, when a 1.5% growth was predicted. Besides this growth in the Catalan economy, in Spain as a whole, the economy grew by 1.4%, according to early data released by the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE). Furthermore, the Catalan economy grew by 0.4% in the last quarter of 2014 compared to September figures and by 1.5% in annual terms. In the first, second, and third quarters it grew by 0.5%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively (in quarterly terms).

Registered unemployment in Catalonia grew by 6,821 people by the end of January, compared to figures from December. However, it is the lowest increase since 2007 for a month in which many seasonal contracts related to Christmas sales end. Furthermore, more good news comes in the form of the 8.06% drop in annual terms posted in January and the fact that registered unemployment has been decreasing for the last 19 consecutive months in annual terms. However, registered unemployment has also been increasing in monthly terms for the last 3 consecutive months (November, December and January). In the whole of Spain, registered unemployment increased by 77,980 people compared to a month ago, also the lowest increase for this time of year since 2007.

The Catalan Government’s Deputy Minister for External Affairs, Roger Albinyana, announced the Executive’s aim to have a network of “about 50 delegations” throughout the world, representing Catalonia’s political, business and cultural interests abroad. The Catalan Government currently has 7 delegations abroad, after the new representations in Rome and Vienna start to work on Monday, when the representatives were appointed. The 5 others are located in Brussels, London, Paris, Berlin and Washington. In the coming “months and years”, the Catalan Government will continue to open new delegations. Regardless of the hypothetical independence from Spain, the Catalan Executive already has the powers to have its own External Action policy, recognised by the Catalan Statute of Autonomy from 2006, although with many limitations.

For the first time in 7 years, in 2014 Catalan shops increased their overall sales figures compared to the previous year, growing by 1.4%. Furthermore, the figures are even more positive looking at the sales in December, which grew by 7.4% compared to the same month in 2013, according to data released on Thursday by the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE). The Catalan figures are better than the Spanish average, both for 2014’s overall figures and for those from December. In Spain as a whole, retail increased by 0.9% last year and by 5.4% in December. The worst year for Catalonia’s retail sector was 2011, when sales dropped by 6.2% in annual terms. Other years, they stagnated, such as in 2010.