catalan economy

The Catalan Centre for Polling (CEO), linked to the Catalan Government, published “an experimental poll” based on 1,830 interviews on 10 different future scenarios, such as an independent Catalonia within the European Union, an independent Catalonia being expelled from the EU and independence bringing a positive economic impact. In the event that the Spanish Government insists in not changing anything regarding the current relationship between Catalonia and Spain, 62.7% of Catalans would vote “yes” in an independence referendum while 22.5% would oppose it and 7.8% would abstain. It is the highest-ever support to independence registered in an opinion poll. On the other hand, if the EU automatically expelled Catalonia if its citizens were to vote for independence, 45.4% would still vote “yes”, 37.6% would vote “no” and 12.7% would abstain. For all scenarios independence is the clear winner.

The Catalan economy has continued on a positive trend during the fourth quarter of 2013, also speeding up the recovery process. According to data released on Friday by the Catalan Ministry of Economy and Knowledge alongside the Catalan Institute of Statistics (Idescat), Catalonia’s GDP grew by 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2013, while the Spanish average stood at 0.3%. In the whole year, the Catalan GDP has decreased by 0.6 %, while in 2012 it dropped by 1.3%. The continued good results in exports due to the increasing external demand and the improvement of the domestic demand have driven the economy forward.

The President of the Port of Barcelona, ??Sixte Cambra, said on Wednesday that the total container traffic had reached around one million TEUs for the full year (the reference unit for cargo ships, equivalent to 20 feet containers). “This is the record number of the best pre-crisis times, which happened in 2007” stated Cambra during an informational breakfast in Madrid. The President of the Port of Barcelona also underlined the change in trends since in 2007, in spite of the record number of containers, “more than 60% were imports; in 2013 over 60% were exported containers.”

In annual terms, there were 27,946 less registered unemployed people in January 2014 than in January 2013, meaning a 4.22 % drop. Seven consecutive months of decreases in the registered unemployed figures had not been achieved since June 2007. Besides, in monthly terms, the latest figures also show a positive trend. Indeed, January is traditionally a month where unemployment increases, with the only drop recorded since 1997, the beginning of the series, dating back to January 1998. In January 2014, unemployment grew by 8,999 people compared to December 2013, the mildest increase registered in that month since 2007. Referring to these latest figures, the Catalan Deputy Minister for Employment stated that he was “moderately optimistic”.

The management of Barcelona-based Almirall pharmaceutical multinational and trade unions have signed an agreement on Monday, reducing the initially planned number of laid-off employees from 250 to 180. The document, which has mostly been ratified in production and research centres in Greater Barcelona as well as by the marketing network, also provides specific compensations for the workers aged 55 years and over, and the maximum compensations set by the law for the rest of the laid-off staff. According to the General Workers Union (UGT), 30% of the laid-off employees will correspond to voluntary redundancies, which will be proportionally distributed among the different groups of workers.

The President of the employer’s association Cercle Català de Negocis (CCN), Albert Pont, stated that part of the Spanish Government’s debt is “odious” and therefore Catalonia cannot recognise this “illegitimate debt”. However, Pont underlined the “willingness” to pay for the proportionate share of the rest of the debt, which should be calculated “item by item”. In an exclusive interview with the CNA, he denounced a public debt generated “for the benefit of no more than a few companies” that “provide works, services and infrastructures” for the Spanish Government. “If Spain does not recognise the independence of Catalonia, Spain should assume its debt completely and the Catalan Government its own debt”, he warned. In addition, Pont denounced the fact that the Spanish Executive is taking away “between €16 billion and €18 billion” from Catalonia each year, a fiscal deficit amounting to “around 9%” of the Catalan GDP. “The IMF already established that fiscal deficits exceeding 4% of the GDP of a territory amounted to colonial relations”, he highlighted. Besides, he explained that “the average custom duty is between 1.4% and 1.5%”. However, Pont ruled out this possibility since a “political solution” will be reached to keep Catalonia within the EU.

The economic crisis and especially the recession starting in 2009 have contributed to the growing weight of the underground economy in Catalonia and in Spain, according to a study presented on Wednesday by the Spanish Ministry of Finance’s Union of Technicians (Gestha). This study is entitled ‘L’economia submergida passa factura. Avançament del frau a Espanya durant la crisi’ (Underground economy takes its toll. Growing fraud in Spain during the crisis) and is led by Jordi Sardà, a professor at Tarragona’s Universitat Rovira i Virgili (URV). It reveals that according to the latest figures (from 2012) the underground economy has absorbed 24.6% of Catalonia’s GDP, hiding €47.36 billion. In 2009 the weight of illegal activity amounted to 22.3 %, meaning that between 2009 and 2012 some €4.6 billion were hidden.

The Catalan business community is deeply annoyed with the Spanish Government for not publishing transparent data on Catalonia’s fiscal contribution to the rest of Spain and therefore not recognising the fiscal deficit. The Spanish Finance Minister, Cristóbal Montoro, was supposed to issue the so-called fiscal balances last December but their publication was inexplicably delayed. Last Friday, in late January, Montoro announced the fiscal balances would no longer be calculated and published in the present form; instead, he would publish in March the “regionalised public figures” stating the costs of public services per citizen because the fiscal balances were “incomplete and incoherent”. However, on Tuesday, the Minister recognised that they were “correct” but “wrongly used” to support Catalan independence claims.

Last year, Catalonia was the leading Autonomous Community in Spain for foreign tourism spending, which generated €14.02 billion, 13.4 % more than in 2012, according to the Tourist Expenditure Survey (EGATUR) of the Spanish Ministry of Industry, Energy and Tourism. The average spending per stay in Catalonia amounted to €903 per foreign visitor, 4.9% more than in 2012, while the daily spending was set at €120 per person, 1.4 % more than the previous year. Catalonia accounted for 23.7 % of foreign tourism spending in Spain, which reached €59.08 billion. Besides, tourism spending grew more in Catalonia than in any other Autonomous Communities in Spain and is well above the Spanish 9.6 % average increase over the previous year.

According to the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE), the 49.26 million overnight stays registered in 2013 amounted to a 1.82% increase on the previous year, thanks to a 5.34% rise for foreign guests. On the other hand, due to the economic crisis, the number of overnight stays for Spaniards fell by 6.82%. The number of visitors who stayed in one of Catalonia’s 2,122 hotels in 2013 reached a total of 16.240 million people, an increase of 0.02 % over 2012. The number of foreign guests also increased, by 3.62 %, while the number of Spanish visitors fell by 5.66 %. Catalan hotels registered a 55.55% occupancy rate, above the 55.51% posted in 2012.

Catalonia ended 2013 with an unemployment rate of 22.26% and a total of 820,400 people unemployed, according to the Active Population Survey (EPA) for the fourth quarter. In late 2013 Catalonia registered 64,700 fewer unemployed people compared to the last quarter of 2012. At Spanish level, the unemployment rate was set at 26.03 %, with a total of 5,896,300 unemployed people. At the end of 2013, there were 69,100 fewer unemployed than in the last quarter of 2012. Furthermore, between September and December there were 8,400 fewer jobseekers in Spain. In the same 3-month period there were 20,100 fewer jobseekers in Catalonia. The Catalan Deputy Minister for Employment stated that these figures were “the best since the start of the crisis” since “for the first time, the number of employed has increased and the number of unemployed has decreased”.

In 2013, Catalonia was the first tourist destination in Spain. It received15.6 million foreign visitors, meaning 25.7 % of the total number of international tourists in Spain (one in four). The figure represents an 8% increase over the previous year. The Balearic Islands were in second place, welcoming over 11 million tourists (18.3%), a 7.2% increase. The Catalan Minister for Business and Employment, Felip Puig, stressed that tourist spending also increased significantly, generating €14.2 billion in 2013, that is to say 14% more than the previous year. At Spanish level, the number of foreign visitors reached a new record: Spain welcomed 60.6 million tourists in 2013, making it the third favourite travel destination in the world, behind France and the United States.

Rating agency Moody’s warns that Catalan independence from Spain might have “a major adverse impact on Spain’s economy” but also that “Catalonia itself could also suffer” if the break–up is not friendly. In a forecast about the Spanish economy published this week, the New York-based company analyses potential risks that might damage the expected economic recovery. Moody’s praise the high level of exports, based on a higher competitiveness reached by lowering salaries. However, the report, signed by Zach Witton, highlights that “debt reduction by households and businesses, elevated unemployment, the housing market correction, and tight credit will drag on growth”.

By the end of December, Catalonia registered a 0.2% annual inflation rate, according to the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE). This figure is the lowest recorded in Catalonia at the end of the year since December 1978, when the INE started providing figures for each of the Autonomous Communities. In the whole of Spain, prices ended 2013 posting an annual inflation rate of 0.3%, the lowest registered on a month of December since 1961; the very year such figures started being released. However, these are not the lowest annual inflation rates, since the record was set in July 2009, with a -0.9% annual rate in Catalonia. In monthly terms, prices increased by 0.2% in December in Catalonia on November figures and by 0.1% in the whole of Spain. The price increase was mostly due to the growth in oil prices, while leisure, culture and clothing helped minimising the general increase.

In the coming weeks, the management of Volkswagen Group should decide where to produce its latest SUV model, designed in the SEAT Technical Centre in Martorell (Greater Barcelona) and featuring two versions, one for the Catalan brand and the other one for Skoda. The President of the SEAT Workers Committee in Martorell, Matias Carnero, argued that the Catalonia-based factory was the most competitive to produce the vehicle. These past weeks, some sources have asserted that Martorell’s main rival, the Skoda plant in the Czech Republic, would ultimately be chosen. Indeed, it is believed that the President of SEAT Jürgen Stackmann hinted at such a fact in several internal meetings. However, Matias Carnero insisted that the Martorell factory had never been completely ruled out.