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According to the exit polls, the parties supporting independence would obtain between 58% and 64% of the seats in the Catalan Parliament in the elections with the highest voter turnout ever. The Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) would win the elections again but it might lose some support, falling far short of an absolute majority. The Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC) would double its results, becoming the second largest force in the Parliament for the first time ever. Support for the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) would plummet and it could lose 40% of its seats. The People’s Party (PP) might stagnate or even lose 2 seats. The Catalan Green Socialist and Communist Coalition (ICV-EUiA) might stagnate or increase by 2 seats. The anti-Catalan nationalist party could double its results but will probably remain a small party. The radical left-wing and pro-independence CUP could enter the Parliament.

Nobody doubts that the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) will win the elections again, but it is not clear if it will obtain an absolute majority or even lose some MPs. However, these elections are not so much about parties but they have de facto turned into a plebiscite on the Catalan peoples’ right to self-determination and the organisation of an independence referendum. If the parties defending the organisation of a self-determination referendum and independence clearly win the elections as expected, Spain would face its deepest political crisis of the last three decades. Knowing this, the campaign has been the tensest ever, including dirty tricks being played by Spanish nationalists against the CiU. However, many citizens will also vote while thinking about the last two years of budget cuts. Thus, left-wing parties supporting independence are likely to get more support.

With 3.39% of the votes in the last elections and 3 MPs in the Catalan Parliament, polls indicate that the number of Ciutadans’s MPs could double in the next elections, resulting in between 6 and 8 MPs, and forming its own parliamentary group for the first time. In its 6 years of existence, it has mainly focused on attacking the policies defending the Catalan language. Now, clearly opposed to Catalan independence and organising a self-determination referendum, C’s is lifting the banner of Spanish unity to attract voters. Ciutadans is seen by many as a populist party, with a conflict-driven speech criticising Catalonia’s political class and offering easy solutions to complex social problems.

Elections for the Catalan Parliament, which will elect the next President of the Catalan Government, are to be held on the 25th of November. The two-week electoral campaign has started, with Catalonia’s independence as the main topic of debate, while opposition parties are trying to put the budget cuts and the recovery from the economic crisis upfront. On Thursday, minutes before midnight, political parties officially kicked off the campaign, although the race started a month and a half ago, when the Catalan President, Artur Mas, called for early elections. Surveys indicate that Mas’ party, the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU), will win the elections again, with improved results and close to an absolute majority. Catalonia’s political map may change with the Socialist Party likely to drop.

Just before the Catalan election campaign kicks off, the survey centres run by the Spanish and the Catalan governments have both issued their own polls. 57% of Catalans would vote for independence in a referendum, according to the Catalan survey. In June the percentage was 51%. The Spanish survey did not include the question. Both polls agree that the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) – currently running the Catalan Government – would gain more votes, close to obtaining an absolute majority. The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), which is against independence and already obtained its worst results ever in 2010, would lose between 30% and 45% of MPs. The People’s Party (PP) would obtain similar results, but might become the party in second place. The Left-Wing Independence Party (ERC) would increase its representation by 40% to 70% and might become the third party.

A poll taken by the Catalan Survey Institute points out that only 19.9% of Catalans would be against organising a referendum asking if Catalonia should be a new independent European state. 6% would be undecided. The poll also reflects electoral preferences in the next Catalan elections, scheduled on 25th November. 26.3% of citizens would vote for the ruling Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU), which would clearly win the elections. However, those undecided represent 34.6% of the people interviewed. The votes for the main opposition party in Catalonia, the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), would plummet to only 3.1%. The parties clearly supporting the self-determination (CiU, ERC and ICV-EUiA) would become Catalonia’s first, second and third parties.

15% of the MPs oppose the decision, all members of Spanish nationalist parties. The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) abstains, although one of its veteran MPs backs the citizen consultation. This was the last vote of the Catalan Parliament this term, as early elections have been called, on 25th November, which may turn into a plebiscite on the right to self-determination. The Spanish Government has stated it would immediately block such citizen vote by bringing it to the Constitutional Court, since it has to authorise any referendum in Spain. Furthermore, the day before it stated it will “calmly and firmly” oppose Catalonia’s independence process.

In the Catalan Parliament’s main annual debate, the parties assessed the current situation and the Catalan President’s speech from yesterday. The parties that openly support Catalonia’s independence backed the Catalan President and leader of the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) but asked to rush proceedings. Those supporting the right to self-determination but not necessarily independence and those directly opposing independence criticised CiU’s policies for fighting the crisis and its focus on the process to create a state. The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, offered a detailed reply to each intervention. However, he also made an announcement: if he is re-elected President, he will organise a referendum on self-rule, even if the Spanish Government bans it.

“In exceptional times, exceptional decisions are needed”, stated the Catalan President, Artur Mas. After the 1.5 million strong independence demonstration on September 11th, the Spanish PM’s refusal to negotiate a fiscal agreement for Catalonia, and days of speculation, Mas called for elections. He announced the decision in the Catalan Parliament’s main annual debate, in which he stated that budget cuts will continue, although “austerity cannot be the only value”. He also accused the Spanish Government of being “disloyal” and imposing stricter deficit targets on the Autonomous Communities. Catalan nationalist parties are celebrating the call for elections for giving the people a say, while the rest accuse Mas of putting his party’s interest first by deviating attention away from the dramatic economic situation.

In a very unusual movement, Juan Carlos I has issued a short but clear letter one week after the massive demonstration for Catalonia’s independence. The King emphasised the need to remain “united” and asked the people to retake the “values” of the “Democratic Transition”, such as “dialogue” and “the sacrifice of particular interests for the general good”. The Catalan Government does not feel “concerned” by the King’s letter. However, it states that Catalonia “offers solutions” and “does not chase pipe dreams”. Spanish nationalists celebrate the King’s words while PM Mariano Rajoy still remains silent. Catalan and Basque nationalists criticise the King for taking sides and not emphasising values such as “pluralism, diversity, tolerance, and respect for discrepancies”.

The Spokesperson for the Catalan Government emphasised the money requested comes from Catalan taxpayers, since Catalonia pays €17 billion each year for services and investments in the rest of Spain. Nonetheless, the Catalan Executive stated it will meet the deficit targets and will follow the already approved austerity plan. The Spanish PM and leader of the People’s Party (PP) confirms it will “help Catalonia as we help the other Autonomous Communities”. However, the PP Spokesperson in Catalonia said the Catalan Government will have to accept whatever the conditions are. The Catalan Socialists want to know what the €5 billion will be spent on before supporting the decision. The Catalan Independence parties criticised the decision for having given away Catalonia’s autonomy.

The Catalan Social Affairs Minister, Josep Lluís Cleries, stated before the Catalan Parliament that €70 million had not been paid on time to health and social care organisations this August. He said he was sorry for the situation but underlined that the €50 million destined for private citizens had been paid. The Catalan Finance Minister, Andreu Mas-Colell, emphasised that, if the Spanish Government does not activate the Liquidity Fund for the Autonomous Communities and similar measures, he cannot guarantee the situation will not be repeated in the future. However, he said to be confident the Spanish Government will put these mechanisms in place soon. The Left-Wing opposition parties had requested the urgent hearings.

Catalonia’s Executive blames the Spanish Government for not having transferred all this month’s economic resources and creating serious financial problems for the Autonomies, compelled to pay other financial obligations first. Social care organisations state that the service is guaranteed but that some employees might not receive their salary in time. In addition, despite that they are looking for solutions with the Catalan Government, they criticise the bad planning and are having to look for last minute solutions. Catalonia’s opposition parties have forced the Catalan Finance and Social Affairs Ministers to explain the situation to the Catalan Parliament.

The President of the Catalan Government has organised a summit with all the parties at the Catalan Parliament to discuss a new fiscal scheme for Catalonia. According to official studies, Catalonia gives 8.5% of its GDP each year to pay for investments and services in the rest of Spain, an amount that represents more than €17 billion per year. Some parties state that the current model is unsustainable for Catalonia and represents a plundering of its finances. Others have a more moderate opinion. Nonetheless, all political parties in Catalonia now believe that this amount is excessive and that the fiscal scheme between Catalonia and the rest of Spain should be reviewed. However, they significantly disagree on the formula and the timing.

The third plan represents an additional budget cut of €1.5 billion, in order to meet the 1.5% deficit target for this year. The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, said that the plan “guarantees essential services”. He also stated that if the Spanish Government had paid what it owed last year, the current reduction would be halved. The plan decreases budget allocations for public companies, reduces public employee salaries once again, decreases the amount allocated for subsidies, delays investments, privatises some public companies, sells public buildings, and implements the measures decided by the Spanish Government regarding health and education. The opposition criticised the plan for not being concrete and effective enough.