Politics

On Monday the Catalan Government filed a complaint to the Constitutional Court by which it requested the rejection of the Spanish Executive's appeal against the alternative and non-binding consultation vote on independence scheduled for the 9^th of November. The Catalan Executive accuses the Spanish Government of "abuse of power and abuse of the legal process" since it is filing an appeal instead of filing a mere execution incident in order to force the Court's automatic  suspension of the alternative vote and stop citizens from expressing their opinion. According to the Catalan Minister for the Presidency, Francesc Homs, the Spanish Government cannot argue that Catalan authorities are disobeying the temporary suspension of the original consultation vote and at the same time file a new appeal on this same matter. When the Constitutional Court accepts an appeal from the Spanish Government, the object being appealed against is automatically suspended until a final decision is reached.

South African Archbishop Desmond Tutu and Argentinian activist Adolfo Pérez Esquivel, both of whom were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, as well as UK film-maker Ken Loach, Dutch sociologist Saskia Sassen, UK historian Paul Preston, American sociologist Richard Sennett, US writer Harold Bloom, Portuguese writer António Lobo Antunes, Irish activist Bill Shipsey and US former ambassador Ambler Moss have issued the 'Let Catalans Vote' manifesto. "A majority of Catalans have repeatedly expressed in different ways the wish to exercise their democratic right to vote on their political future" the document starts. Mentioning the positive examples of Quebec and Scotland, the signers stress that "to prevent the Catalans from voting seems to contradict the principles that inspire democratic societies". Finally, they urge the Spanish and Catalan governments to agree on a vote and "to negotiate in good faith based on the result".

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, reacted on Friday evening to the Spanish Executive's appeal against November 9's alternative consultation vote on independence. Mas guaranteed that the vote will take place because "it cannot be stopped" as it is run by volunteers. In addition, he has accused the Spanish Government of "abuse of power and abuse of legal process", since "it is using the Constitutional Court to solve its problems" and is using "the appeal to hide its lack of political capacity". Furthermore, he emphasised that the Spanish Executive had at first been "downplaying" and "mocking about" the alternative vote, but "two weeks later" it considers it to be a great threat to democracy and it appeals against it. By doing this, the Spanish Government "has crossed the line of becoming ridiculous", he added.

On Friday, the Swiss bank UBS issued a certificate stating that Xavier Trias, Mayor of Barcelona, does not and has never had any account with them, contradicting the accusations launched at him by Spanish nationalist newspaper 'El Mundo' on Monday which mentioned sources from the Spanish Home Affairs Ministry. Trias, who supports Catalan independence from Spain, strongly rejected the accusations of having €12.9 million in a secret bank account in Switzerland on the very first day they were published and he cautioned against dirty tricks from the Spanish Government. In addition, the Mayor also announced a judicial complaint against the newspaper and he said he would ask for such a certificate. On Tuesday, 'El Mundo' insisted on the accusations and it even published the UBS bank account number on its front page, while Trias filed the judicial complaint. Now, after UBS guaranteed that he has never had and does not have a bank account with them, Trias is asking for the resignation of the Spanish Home Affair Minister.

Early afternoon on Friday, the Spanish Government filed the appeal to the Constitutional Court against the alternative participatory process that the Catalan Government is organising for the 9^th of November. According to the Spanish Deputy Prime Minister, Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría, the appeal's objective is to avoid "an abuse of the legal framework" and "to protect democracy" from the "perversion" represented by the Catalan participatory process. In addition, the appeal also aims "to protect civil servants", emphasised the Deputy PM. Furthermore, she considered that the President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, "is taking another step outside of the Constitution" and that he "wants to violate the rights of citizens". This time, the Constitutional Court has not rushed to accept the Spanish Government's appeal, as it did on the 29^th of September, and it is likely to do so on Tuesday 4^th of November, in its next scheduled plenary. If the Court accepts the appeal, as it is expected, the participatory process would be automatically suspended, awaiting the final decision, which can take months or years.

According to a poll by the Centre of Opinion Studies (CEO), run by the Catalan Government, 49.4% of Catalans would vote "yes" to both parts of the question "Do you want Catalonia to become a State? If yes, do you want to become an independent State?" In addition, 12.6% would vote "yes" to the first part and "no" to the second, meaning they would back a Catalan State within a federal or confederated Spain. Finally, 19.7% would vote "no", meaning they back the current 'status quo' or they want recentralisation. Therefore, 32.3% of citizens would be against independence. However, such a poll cannot be used to predict results for November 9's alternative consultation vote, stated the CEO, since the census is not the same and many people from the "no" side are expected not to vote in the alternative participatory process.

On Thursday, the Spanish Government’s main advisory body – the State Council – has issued a non-binding report upon the request of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy against the alternative consultation vote that the Catalan Executive is organising for November 9. This body has unanimously recommended taking Catalonia’s participatory process to the Constitutional Court and requesting its suspension. Now, Rajoy has the green light to make such a step on Friday, only 9 days before the vote is supposed to happen. Meanwhile in Catalonia, all the parties supporting the self-determination process are insisting on continuing to work for high citizen participation on the 9^th of November. Furthermore, on Wednesday evening, they started campaigning and the Catalan Government launched the website to inform citizens about their exact voting place. Besides, those against independence in Catalonia are divided between those asking Rajoy to be smart and not to appeal, and those asking him to stop the vote.

While the alternative consultation vote on independence scheduled on the 9^th of November approaches, the Catalan Government has additional priorities on its plate, starting with the approval of its budget for 2015. However, right now the governing centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU does not have enough parliamentary support to approve it. Its parliamentary ally, the left-wing independence party ERC, is reluctant to back the new budget after the Catalan Government cancelled the original consultation vote. The ERC wants to start preparing the first budget of an independent state and on Tuesday it offered to extend the 2014 budget. However, the Catalan President, Artur Mas, announced on Wednesday he will bring the budget proposal to the Parliament anyway. The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) offered itself as an ally, but Mas asked them to back the alternative consultation vote. The PSC replied that if the question is changed, "we can talk about everything".

The Spanish Government, chaired by Mariano Rajoy, has activated the machinery to suspend the alternative non-binding participatory process that the Catalan Executive is organising on the 9^th of November, which replaces the original consultation vote. On Monday evening, Rajoy asked the State Council – his main advisory body – for a non-binding report on the Catalonia's new vote; it did so on the same day that a broad network of corruption, mainly involving Rajoy's People's Party (PP), was revealed. On Tuesday, the Catalan Government replied that its will is to put out ballot boxes, since it does not believe the Constitutional Court will suspend such a participatory process. Left-wing parties backing a self-determination consultation asked the Catalan Government to keep the vote no matter what. Now that the unity of action among pro-self-determination forces has been restored, the PP is calling the vote a "referendum", after downplaying it for two weeks.

The Spanish Government announced on Friday that it has asked its legal services to analyse all the aspects of Catalonia's alternative vote of the 9^th of November, which is replacing the original consultation vote that has already been banned by the Spanish authorities. 16 days before the consultation vote has to take place and 10 days after it was announced by the President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, the Spanish Executive is starting to pave the way for appealing against this new participatory process that asks Catalans their opinion about independence from Spain. On Friday, the Spanish Deputy Prime Minister, Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría, stated that Mas is pretending to replace "an illegal process for one that is even more antidemocratic". Therefore, it seems that after a few days hesitating whether or not to ban the new vote, the Spanish Government will probably appeal against it and make the Constitutional Court temporarily suspend it. In the last few days, Catalan political parties and civil society organisations have rebuilt their unity of action, which seemed broken during the time the Spanish Government was hesitating.

Catalonia's National Alliance for Self-Determination, which brings together more than 3,000 civil society, business, cultural, sports and political organisations, pledged to make sure that the alternative participatory process scheduled on the 9^th of November will be a success, in terms of voter turnout and of other "great mobilisations". Despite the acknowledged limitations of this alternative vote that replaces the original consultation vote scheduled on the same day, the National Alliance has agreed to focus its collective efforts on this day's success, also backing "other forms of mobilisation that will strengthen citizen participation" in the self-determination process. Furthermore, the Alliance Coordinator, the veteran Christian-Democrat politician Joan Rigol, stressed that political parties will also focus on this day and will increase "coordination" to overcome recent tensions among them. The National Alliance will meet again after November 9 to discuss the next steps.

On Thursday, Oleguer Pujol, the youngest son of the former Catalan President, Jordi Pujol Soley, was formally indicted for alleged fiscal fraud and money laundering. The Spanish Police and the Public Prosecutor searched his house and several of his companies looking for files regarding real estate operations. This makes Oleguer the third son of the historical leader of conservative Catalan nationalism to be indicted for fiscal offenses. Furthermore, on Wednesday another judge indicted 11 people related to the former President's oldest son, Jordi Pujol Ferrusola – who seems to be at the centre of almost all the investigations. In addition, the judge has requested the freezing of his bank accounts in Andorra, from which he transferred €2.4 million to Mexico just after his father's fiscal fraud confession in July. On top of this, a judge from Liechtenstein is investigating the former Catalan President for alleged money laundering, after requests from the Spanish Police. Jordi Pujol senior has denied having had any bank account in the Alpine country.

The President of the Catalan Government and leader of the centre-right pro-Catalan State CiU, Artur Mas, and the President of the left-wing Catalan independence party ERC, Oriol Junqueras, met on Wednesday, after days of tensions among the parties supporting self-determination. The tensions have been mainly about how to raise the legal profile of the alternative participatory process scheduled on the 9^th of November, which replaces the original consultation vote, and about a common platform to run in early elections transformed into a 'de facto' referendum on independence. According to Junqueras, the two leaders decided to work on making sure that the alternative consultation vote is "a success". In addition, he said that Mas had requested that he leave the debate about the early elections for the days after the 9^th of November's vote, despite Junqueras insisting on an immediate electoral call.

938 of the 947 existing municipalities in Catalonia will host polling stations for the alternative consultation vote on independence scheduled for the 9^th of November, which replaces the original non-binding referendum. According to the Catalan Government, this represents 99.9% of Catalans being able to vote in their own neighbourhood, town or village, without having to go to a nearby municipality. The Catalan Government will be using its own venues to host the polling stations (mainly high-schools), but it lacks them in small towns. For this reason it requested that town halls cooperate and make municipal venues available for voting. 4 additional municipalities could be added to the final list. In addition, civil societies and parties will be able to campaign in 305 Catalan Government's venues between the 30^th of October and the 8^th of November.

The international rating agency Moody’s analyses the current political situation in Catalonia regarding the alternative consultation vote scheduled for the 9^th of November and the potential early elections. Moody’s considers that early Catalan Parliament elections are the most likely scenario, emphasising the Catalan Government’s commitment to respect the legal framework. In addition, it also considers “a common platform” with which pro-independence parties would run in the elections to be the most likely outcome. On top of this, Moody’s predicts the victory of such a common platform and that Catalonia would be in a “strong” position to negotiate a better fiscal deal within the current Constitution. However, in such scenario, Moody’s does not consider independence. In this vein, Catalonia’s credit rating is likely to improve while Spain’s would worsen.