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On Sunday, Catalans are being called to give their opinion about independence in a participatory process, organised by the Catalan Government in cooperation with more than 40,000 volunteers and many town halls, which replaces the original consultation vote also scheduled for the 9th of November. The Spanish Government appealed against the first vote, the Constitutional Court suspended it, the Catalan Government launched an alternative process and the Spanish Government filed a new appeal, accepted by the Constitutional Court. However, this time the non-binding participatory has been maintained with a wide consensus among Catalan institutions a wide representation from the civil society. These are the three last steps of an intense self-determination process, which started with the approval and trimming of the Catalan Statute of Autonomy and was shaped by four massive demonstrations and a series of "no" and threats by the Spanish authorities. Here is a summary of the main milestones of this process before the massive pro-independence demonstration of 2012.
The former Catalan President Jordi Pujol, who confessed in late July that his family had committed fiscal fraud for years by having a hidden fortune in Andorra, will also be requested to provide further explanations before the Catalan Parliament by the coalition he founded and used to lead, the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, which currently runs the Catalan Government. On Monday the CiU confirmed that they will vote on Tuesday for the parliamentary appearance request, joining the rest of Catalan parties. Pujol's fraud has shocked Catalan society and has been presented by Madrid-based forces as a fatal threat to the self-determination process. However, there are increasing amount of news pointing towards the theory that the Spanish authorities (Government, tax agency and public prosecutor) and the two main parties (PP and PSOE) knew about Pujol family's fraud for decades and covered it up in exchange for his opposition to independence. In fact, Pujol had always worked to better fit Catalonia within a more modern Spain and only embraced pro-independence stances two years ago.
King Juan Carlos' succession process is not explicitly backed by the Centre-Right pro-Catalan State Coalition Convergència i Unió (CiU), which played a crucial role in Spain's Transition from dictatorship to democracy and guaranteed on many occasions Spain's stability. However, this time, the CiU has decided to abstain in the vote on the Law on Juan Carlos' abdication, as it was announced last week. The CiU accused Spain's two largest parties – the governing People's Party (PP) and the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) – of having excluded them from this and previous processes. The bill was approved on Wednesday by 85% of the Spanish Parliament, but only with the votes from the PP, the PSOE and the Spanish nationalist and populist UPyD. The Catalan and Basque conservative nationalists have abstained, while the left-wing Catalan parties have voted against it. The CiU was an essential part of the consensus of the 1978 Constitution, which once again proves to be broken.
The Catalan Government will file several formal demands for payment of the €2.02 billion the Spanish Government legally owes Catalonia from the 2008-2013 period. The money represents 1% of Catalonia’s GDP or 7% of the Catalan Government’s budget. According to the Statute of Autonomy, which was approved by the Spanish Parliament and came into force in 2006, the Spanish Government was obliged to invest a percentage equal to or higher than Catalonia’s share of Spain’s GDP between 2007 and 2013 in order to compensate for an historical lack of infrastructure investment. If it was not doing so, the Spanish Executive had to compensate Catalonia financially. The measure was adopted after exhaustive negotiations and was essential to the approval of this law by the Catalan people through a binding referendum. However, the Spanish Government never honoured it. Madrid compensated Catalonia for the lack of investment in 2007, but not for the remaining years.
According to polls, Catalonia might be essential to ensure the absolute majority to the People’s Party (PP) or to save the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) from getting its worst results ever. The Socialists risk loosing more than a third of its seats in Catalonia while the PP, far from winning in Catalonia, could get its best results. Catalan nationalists ‘Convergència i Unió’, who are the third largest group in the Spanish Parliament, could win the elections in Catalonia, ending the ten Socialist Party victories in a row in these elections.
Many in Catalonia fear that a constitutional limitation to public deficit and debt may dramatically reduce Catalonia’s already restricted fiscal autonomy, which would not only affect self-governance but also the possibility to pay for investments or public services not guaranteed by the Spanish State. The fear goes beyond Catalan party boundaries regarding the second amendment to the Spanish Constitution, which would be approved through an “urgent procedure”, almost without public and political debate. Catalan senators could force a call for a binding referendum.
Main Catalan forces share the need to control public spending and balance public finances but many fear the proposed measure could be used to trim Catalonia’s self-governance. In this line, the Catalan Government’s spokesperson asked Catalan parties to frontally oppose to any measure limiting fiscal autonomy. However, other Catalan politicians are open to discussion but “want to look at the small print”. Furthermore, the Spanish Parliament also approved the fiscal measures announced last week, by which the State will save around 5,000 million euros this year.
The president of the United States called on Monday evening, the Spanish Prime Minister to discuss the world economic situation, focusing on two main themes, the evolution of debt problems in Europe and the United States, and the growth of world economy.
The yields for Spanish 10 year bonds are well over 6% while economic growth remains slow
The yield on Spanish bonds reached 400 points more than German ‘bunds’, a record since the introduction of the euro