moody's

Declaration of independence impact on country's GDP and industrial sector "limited," says agency

The international rating agency Moody’s analyses the current political situation in Catalonia regarding the alternative consultation vote scheduled for the 9^th of November and the potential early elections. Moody’s considers that early Catalan Parliament elections are the most likely scenario, emphasising the Catalan Government’s commitment to respect the legal framework. In addition, it also considers “a common platform” with which pro-independence parties would run in the elections to be the most likely outcome. On top of this, Moody’s predicts the victory of such a common platform and that Catalonia would be in a “strong” position to negotiate a better fiscal deal within the current Constitution. However, in such scenario, Moody’s does not consider independence. In this vein, Catalonia’s credit rating is likely to improve while Spain’s would worsen.

Rating agency Moody’s warns that Catalan independence from Spain might have “a major adverse impact on Spain’s economy” but also that “Catalonia itself could also suffer” if the break–up is not friendly. In a forecast about the Spanish economy published this week, the New York-based company analyses potential risks that might damage the expected economic recovery. Moody’s praise the high level of exports, based on a higher competitiveness reached by lowering salaries. However, the report, signed by Zach Witton, highlights that “debt reduction by households and businesses, elevated unemployment, the housing market correction, and tight credit will drag on growth”.

Catalonia and five other autonomous communities have had their long term rating downgraded whilst the Spanish state's credit rating comes under review.

The new bank becomes Spain’s third financial institution for its stock exchange value and the ninth in the Ibex-35 Spanish index. CaixaBank is the result of Barcelona-based savings bank La Caixa’s transformation into a private bank in order to strengthen its structure and position in the market, after the sector restructuration. The day CaixaBank was listed for the first time on the stock exchange, the rating agency Moody’s improved CaixaBank’s appreciation. However, after an initial increase CaixaBank’s value dropped by 1.1%. It is the first Spanish savings bank that concludes its transformation and trade on the stock exchange.

The European Commission also recognised "a different effort" to the rest of Spain’s Autonomous Communities. Brussels said so when on Tuesday it asked Spain “to strictly control” the public “deficit and debt of regional governments”, the day after Moody’s rating agency warned about Catalonia’s expected deficit for 2011. The Spanish Government took note from this particular recommendation but not the other made by Brussels, which included increasing energy taxes and VAT. The Catalan Government criticised Moody’s for “creating alarm” with assessments that do not take into account the whole situation. In addition, it denounced how the Spanish Government has reduced its own deficit by transferring it to the Autonomous Communities.

The Director of ESADE’s Master in Finance, Jordi Fabregat, recommends that Catalan savings banks speed up its transformation into private banks in order.