Coffee and cocoa feared to become luxury products due to price increases

The price of both coffee and cocoa have increased starkly in recent years. The prices of both products have risen by a striking 32.5% between February 2022 and February 2025, according to the consumer price index from Spain's National Statistics Institute (INE). 

The factors behind this surge are climate change, large-scale industry, and a growing demand in Asian countries, showing a contrast with the numbers of the previous decade when the value of these products only rose by 4.75%. 

The Coffee Guild of Catalonia and the Pastry Guild of Barcelona suggest lowering profit margins as a solution, although they admit that consumer prices will need to rise.  

Some of the factors in the recent spike in prices have been storms and extreme heat events in Ghana and Ivory Coast, two countries responsible for more than half of the world's cocoa production. 

Olivier Fernández, manager of the Barcelona Pastry Guild, also pointed out that cocoa has become less profitable for African farmers, who are switching to more lucrative crops like palm oil.  

At the same time, Fernández noted that "almost all global chocolate production is in the hands of large industry," and price increases are having a major impact on pastry makers. He added that the price of cocoa has nearly multiplied by six, now reaching around €12 per kilogram.  

As a result, Fernández acknowledged that the increased costs will be passed onto customers. However, he also predicted that prices may soon fall or at least stabilize by June, and pointed out that this "shouldn't affect quality," though "some recipes may have been adjusted." 

Rise of coffee prices 

Carlos Gotor, president of the Catalan Coffee Guild and CEO of Cafès Bou, said the rise in coffee prices is due to "complex and varied" reasons.  

The increase in coffee prices has come from similar causal factors as the increase in cocoa prices: "coffee is an agricultural product, so weather conditions matter a lot. The droughts over the past three or four years in Brazil and Vietnam, two of the top coffee-producing countries, have been severe," Gotor explained.  

Brazil and Vietnam together produce 55% of the world's coffee.  

Also, the growing demand for coffee in Asian countries plays a role in the increase in price, but also a global coffee production deficit. "Demand is growing, especially in Asian countries, mainly Turkey, Iran, and China. This has been happening for years and puts pressure on supply,” Gotor said. 

Gotor also highlighted logistics issues affecting supply. "Sociopolitical situations are disrupting routes and increasing shipping prices," he said, citing persistent issues with the Suez Canal.  

"Another factor is speculation. When production is low and demand is high, speculation kicks in and everything becomes exaggerated," he added. "It creates a sort of panic, pushing prices much higher than normal. That’s what we’re seeing now." 

"Compared to last year, the price of arabica coffee has doubled, up 100%. Robusta coffee, which already increased two years ago, has gone up another 40–50% since 2024," Gotor estimated.  

However, Gotor declined to make mid- or long-term predictions about coffee prices. "That would be a bit of science fiction. Coffee production cycles take two to three years. It seems it’ll take another couple of years before production and consumption stabilize," he predicted. "Brazil’s 2025 coffee production outlook isn’t great. The drought in October–November will impact this summer’s harvest (June to August), which explains current prices," Gotor concluded.