Catalonia's lowest birth rate in 27 years: is there a risk for the Catalan population?

In 2022, there were 56,316 babies born in Catalonia, the lowest number of births since 1996.

27 years ago, the number of births in Catalonia started to increase and the peak was reached in 2008 with 89,024 babies born that year. 

Over the last 15 years, births in Catalonia have decreased by more than 30,000 and the birth rate currently stands at 7.18 babies born per 1,000 inhabitants. In Spain, that number is just a bit higher with a birth rate of 7.2. 

According to 2022 data from Statista on the crude birth rate in Europe, Catalonia holds one of the lowest birth rates in Europe. Ireland is top of the list among European Union nations, with 11.5 children per 1,000 inhabitants, followed by countries like France and Germany with birth rates of 10.4 and 9.1 respectively. 

However, other countries like Portugal, with 7.8, and Greece, 7.4, show the tendency of southern European countries like Spain, confirmed by Italy with the lowest birth rate in the continent (6.9).

Causes of the current situation

When asked about the reasons behind this low fertility rate, Toni López-Gay, a researcher from the Center for Demographic Studies (CED), points to three causes. 

The first would be the fewer births during the 1980s and 90s, which has a direct impact on the amount of potential mothers nowadays.

There are currently 7% fewer women between the ages of 25 and 40 than there were five years ago. 

This decrease can be expected to continue for 10 or 15 more years, until approximately 2030, when the babies born in the 2000s reach their reproductive age. 

A second cause of the current demographic situation is the Covid-19 pandemic, as most of the births in 2022 were conceived in 2021 when there was still a context of uncertainty surrounding vaccines, unemployment, and economic instability related to the health emergency.

Toni López-Gay points out that this led to a lot of couples postponing their plans to start a family.

For a long time, the immigrants had a significant impact on the increase in births in Catalonia. But right now, foreign women are changing their tendencies, especially in urban areas, which would be the third reason why the birth rate continues to decrease in Catalonia. 

Toni López-Gay says that "10, 15, or 20 years ago, there was a profile of the population that registered and installed themselves in Catalonia with the intention of staying here. But now, more and more, there is a profile of the foreign population, especially from Europe, that lives here for a while, but when they begin to think about having families, they go back to their country of origin. There are more transitory stays in Catalonia."

Fertility: is it a concern?

When asked about the risk that these low numbers may have on the population and in society in general, López-Gay proposes a shift in the debate. 

"Right now, the 'wished fertility' is higher than the 'real fertility,' which means that women would like to have around 2 children, according to data from the Spanish Statistics Institute. But there is a great difference between that number and the actual children women have."

"The success or failure of a society lies within the well-being of its population, social cohesion, and equality. That is what the debate should be focused on," the researcher at the Center for Demographic Studies concludes. 

Apart from the social reasons and difficulties that cause the current situation in Catalonia, there are biological and medical factors to take into account. 

In an interview with Catalan News, Dr. Ximena Justo, part of the medical team at Barcelona IVF Clinic, mentions that "us humans are not that efficient at reproducing when compared to other species."

A social factor that affects fertility is the mother's age. The average age of mothers in Catalonia is 32.6 years old, which affects the chances of having a pregnancy: "Each patient is different, of course, but we know that as age increases, the quality of our eggs drops."

Infertility, or lower fertility, affects 20 to 25% of couples, and that is where fertility treatments come in. 

"Statistics published by the Spanish Fertility Association in 2021 show that one out of ten births in Spain were thanks to fertility treatments. This is a very important number," Dr. Ximena Justo adds. 

Fertility treatments, also on international patients

In recent years, Barcelona has become a hub for international fertility treatments.

In 2012, there were 152 centers specializing in assisted reproduction in Spain, and this number has increased to 320 by 2021, according to Statista data.

These centers help locals to get pregnant but also many internationals too. Fertilab Barcelona clinic explained back in July that "70% of patients who come to the clinic are from outside Spain, with the most representation from France and Italy."

Barcelona IVF Clinic also confirms this, and among the reasons behind this phenomenon they mention the law: "We have a very well-designed law that establishes what can and cannot be done, which gives a lot of safety to both the patients and doctors."

But Dr. Ximena Justo also points out another quality of Barcelona: "The Catalan capital is a very open-minded city. We know that families have changed in the past decades and many international patients turn to Barcelona because they know that they will be accepted here."

"In some other countries, women couples or single women do not have access to fertility treatments," she adds. 

When it comes to assisted reproduction, there are two main treatments on which the Barcelona IVF Clinic works: "The first group, which we call 'low complexity treatments' is basically IUI: intrauterine insemination. That means leaving a sperm sample inside the uterus in order to achieve a natural fertilization process."

"The other treatment we offer is IVF, in vitro fertilization, which is what happens in the lab. We do the egg pickup, which is a small intervention where the woman gets her eggs collected in the operation room. We bring the eggs to the lab with the sperm sample, which can be from their partner or from a donor, and we do the IVF process: we place a sperm cell inside an egg. The embryos that are produced are then left in the incubators for five days, which we call a long culture. Then the embryos are transferred to the womb, with a technique we call embryo transfer," Dr. Justo explains. 

Patients come to Barcelona from countries all over the world like Germany, Belgium, the UK, and even Australia, to undergo these treatments. 

Consequences of low birth

The current low birth rate directly impacts the average age of Catalonia, which stands at 43.4 years. 

For the last 15 years, the average age in Catalonia has been continuously increasing. Since 2008 (40.6 years), the average age in the territory has grown by three years.  

To find an average age of the population in Catalonia under 40, data from 1996 would have to be checked. All of which indicates that the Catalan population is getting older.

The aging of Catalan citizens is also emphasized by the increase in life expectancy, with an average of 82.38 years.

Life expectancy for men is 80.8 and 86.32 for women. In general, women live more, and in Catalonia there are approximately 120,000 more women than men. 

About the consequences of this increase in life expectancy, and population getting older in general, the Study Services from the Barcelona Chamber of Comerce mention that "pensions will only be viable if there is a change in them". 

They believe that the retirement age, which is currently set at 65 in Spain, should be calculated again according to the current age of life expectancy, as it is increasing. 

Research by economy experts has determined that the aging of the population translates to less economic growth in a country.

Another topic that is raised by the problem of an aging population is the depopulation of rural areas, where the main part of the population is of an older age. 

All of these traits of the Catalan demography do not come without challenges that need to lead to some changes that the population has to make, as seen by the experts. 

However, and as Toni López-Gay mentioned, these issues should not determine the success or failure of a society. 

Podcast

Listen to the podcast below for more on Catalonia's falling fertility rate.