What do polls say about the Catalan election?

Dozens of polls about the December 21 Catalan election have been published in the past few weeks. But the law will not allow the media to publish more electoral estimations after this Friday. Therefore, the trends ahead of the vote are set and if the last days of the campaign make any impact we will not know until the exit poll on December 21 at 8pm. Each poll shows a different possible outcome, and the Brexit referendum or the last US election are the evidence that the polls are no way close to an absolute truth. However, some trends can be observed:

Esquerra likely to win the election

The left-wing pro-independence Esquerra Republicana party is on its way to win the election. Almost all the polls put the candidacy in the 'pole position,' with 30-35 seats. Yet this is a slight decrease compared to one and a half months ago, when the party was set to exceed 40 seats. One of the possible reasons for this slight decrease might be that the party's top candidate, Oriol Junqueras, has not been able to campaign. Vice president of the deposed Catalan government, he was imprisoned on November 2. In any case, never in Catalan history has a party won the election with less than 40 seats, so this might be the most fragmented Parliament in history. 

Ciutadans, main unionist party

Ciutadans was the main unionist party in the 2015 election, and it is expected to be so again. While it achieved an unprecedented result of 25 seats out of 135, this time it may approach 30 seats and take part in the battle for the first spot, according to most polls. Some others are not that optimist for Arrimadas' candidacy and put the Socialists, with 20-25 seats, in the contention for the most voted unionist party.

Puigdemont's candidacy catching up

The election looked gloomy for President Puigdemont's party, PDeCAT, one month ago. Yet from Brussels, he promoted a candidacy with many independent candidates, Together for Catalonia, which has been welcomed by voters. At least, according to the polls, which estimate up to 30 seats for them, they will almost double their prospectives than when the elections were called by Mariano Rajoy.

Pro-independence parties have the majority at their reach

It is one of the main unknown questions of the campaign. WIll pro-independence parties keep their majority in the chamber? If so, this could arguably mean a certain failure of Mariano Rajoy's strategy to suspend Catalonia's self-rule and call an election. The majority is set at 68 seats, and on average polls are giving them between 66 and 70 representatives, so it is still anyone's game. Esquerra and Together for Catalonia are set to add up 60 seats, while the far-left CUP is expected to get around the 8 needed to make up a majority. What is more certain, the polls say, is that they will just fall short of 50% of the total votes.

Unionists will fall short of a majority

There is no poll saying that unionist parties will get more seats than pro-independence candidacies. Ciutadans and the Socialists will get around 50 seats, and the People's Party is dropping to 5-8 seats. Not much more than 5% of the voters will go for the Spanish ruling party, who has imposed unprecedented measures to stop Catalonia's road to independence. In terms of vote share, only the latest poll from 'El País' states that unionists will get more votes than pro-independence parties. The rest give slightly more votes for the parties in favour of a Catalan state.

Polarized vote

There is only one of the seven parties expected to get votes that refuses to be part of any bloc. It is Catalonia in Common, which is against Catalonia's unilateral independence but also against Spain's measures to stop it. Yet this position is not set to be very successful,as the party is not expected to get more than 10 seats in the chamber. Yet if neither of the pro-idependence and unionist blocs are able to get the majority, Catalonia in Common might be a deciding factor in the emerging government after December 21.

Record-breaking turnout

Polls suggests that the turnout may break previous records, with up to 80% of voters anticipated to turn up at the polling stations. Around 75% of voters went to the polls two years ago, which was already an unprecedented figure for a Catalan election. The all-time record in Catalonia was 83% in the 1977 Spanish election, the first one after 40 years of a fascist dictatorship.