Uncertainty reigns under 24 hours before Spain's new Congress convenes

Spain's new Congress – the 350 MPs elected on July 23 – will be convening for the first time on Thursday in Madrid.

But under 24 hours before the gathering, uncertainty reigns: will the Socialists succeed in having one of their own elected speaker? Or will the conservative People's Party be victorious?

This, as fate would have it, depends on former Catalan president Carles Puigdemont and his hardline pro-independence Junts per Catalunya party.

Although the right-wing People's Party won more seats than the left-wing Socialists, the conservatives fell short of an absolute majority, even with the backing of far-right Vox.

The left-wing Socialist-Sumar bloc, however, fell short of an absolute majority too, meaning that prime minister Pedro Sánchez's party needs to secure the support of smaller regional parties if it wishes to hold onto power in the congressional bureau and, further down the line, in government in order to prevent another general election from taking place. 

Because of this, Puigdemont, who has lived in Belgium since late 2017 to evade prosecution for the independence vote deemed illegal by Spain, and his Junts' 7 mathematically crucial MPs currently hold more sway in Spanish politics than perhaps any other party at the moment. 

And while Junts support for a People's Party speaker to head the chamber bureau this Thursday is incredibly unlikely, if not impossible, its support for a Socialist one is still anything but certain with less than a day to go for the congressional vote. 

Junts may be more ideologically opposed to the People's Party, but it has rarely seen eye to eye with the unionist Socialists, who have now pledged to "deploy" the use of Catalan and other co-official languages in EU institutions by the end of Spain's EU Council presidency this December in an attempt to garner their support. 

Junts MPs, who will have to not abstain but vote in favor of a Socialist speaker, are set to hold a last-minute meeting to discuss their options only hours before the congressional session is set to open on Thursday.

The party has not made any public declarations about how it intends to vote, but Puigdemont has asked for "hard facts before committing" to anything. 

"As decisive dates like August 17 loom, nervousness grows and the stakes get higher," Puigdemont wrote on X on Monday. "Patience, perseverance, and perspective."