Support for independence in Catalonia up to 48%, says new poll

The number of people in favor of Catalonia’s independence has gone up to 48%, while the number of those wanting to remain part of Spain has fallen to 43.7%, says a new poll. What’s more, the latest survey by Catalonia’s Center for Opinion Studies (CEO in Catalan), which was presented on Friday, predicts that in an election the pro-independence parties would keep hold of their majority in the Catalan chamber.

The results suggest that public opinion in Catalonia has shifted considerably in recent weeks. A previous CEO poll in February found that support for independence had fallen to 40.8%, with those wanting Catalonia to stay part of Spain rising to 53.9%. At the same time, the latest survey predicts that in an election the pro-independence parties would win between 70 and 75 seats in the chamber, thereby ensuring their current majority.

Yet, the survey also predicts that the main unionist party, Ciutadans (Cs), would win an election, with 33 or 34 seats. Of the pro-independence parties, JxCat would again be top, with 30 to 32 seats, with ERC gaining between 29 and 32 seats, and the CUP party up from four to 11 seats, same as Catalunya En Comú-Podem. Meanwhile, the PSC socialists would get between 13 and 15 seats, with the Catalan branch of Spain’s ruling PP party likely to win between three and four seats.

As for the Spanish parliament, the poll predicts that in an election ERC would be the Catalan party to get the most seats in the Congress, with 12, followed by En Comú Podem with between 10 and 11 seats. Meanwhile, the survey forecasts between eight and nine seats for JxCat, with Cs getting eight, PSC winning between five and six, and PP gaining two to three seats.

The poll results come from a survey of 1,500 people in Catalonia, with a margin of error of +2.53%, which was carried out between April 7 and 27. At the time, the political situation in Catalonia was dominated by the negotiations between the pro-independence parties to agree on a formula for swearing in a new Catalan president and forming a government.