Socialists would win Catalan election with rise of far-right, survey says

The Socialists in Catalonia (PSC) would win again, if an election in the territory would take place today, according to the latest barometer survey published on Thursday by the Catalan government-funded survey agency.

The party, currently in government under Salvador Illa's leadership, would win between 41 and 43 seats, similar to the 42 seats obtained in the 2024 election. Meanwhile, pro-independence Junts would lose between 6 and 8 MPs and obtain 27 or 29 seats in the Catalan parliament.

On the other side, the lost seats by the center-right pro-independence party would mainly go toward the Catalan far-right Aliança Catalana, which would get between 8 and 10 seats, from the current 2.

Left-wing pro-independence Esquerra Republicana would remain the third major political party in parliament after obtaining between 21 and 23 seats, slightly improving 2024 results.

The People's Party would get 14 to 16 seats, Spanish far-right 10 to 12, and after Aliança Catalana, left-wing Comuns with 6 to 7 seats, and far-left pro-independence CUP would get between 3 and 4 MPs.

With these results, a left-wing triple coalition would obtain an absolute majority, at 68, with 68 to 73 seats. This coalition would feature the Socialists, Esquerra Republicana, and Comuns. The three parties already agreed on several items to see Salvador Illa named president of Catalonia back in August.

Pro-independence parties, including far-right Aliança Catalana and far-left CUP, would only obtain between 59 and 66 seats. The same survey also points out that the pro-independence support has fallen to 38%, while those backing Catalonia remaining an autonomous region in Spain increased.

The survey took place between February 14 and March 14 and interviewed 2,000 people.