Socialists to win Spanish election in Catalonia with double Esquerra's results, says CEO poll

The Socialists (PSC) would win the Spanish election among Catalan voters on July 23, according to the latest CEO poll, the Catalan government-owned survey agency. 

The party currently leading the Spanish executive would achieve double the number of seats compared to pro-independence Esquerra Republicana (ERC), the current group governing the Catalan government alone. 

The poll forecasts PSC to get between 16-18 seats in the Spanish congress from Catalan constituencies (they currently hold 12), significantly more than ERC's 8-10 (currently 13), which would be almost tied with fellow pro-independence party Junts 7-9 (8) and followed by the conservative People's Party, which is predicted to see an increase from 2 seats to 6-8.

On the other hand, left-wing Sumar-En Comú Podem would see their results halved compared to the 2019 Spanish election results, as from 7, it would get between 2-4 seats in the lower chamber.

Far-right Vox would maintain 2-3 seats (2), and far-left CUP could win a maximum of 2 seats, the same as it currently has. The poll, however, also says that the far-left pro-independence party could be left entirely without representation in the chamber.

Conservative PP to win in Spain but no majority with Vox

Another poll published on Wednesday, Spain's CIS survey, predicts that the conservative People's Party (PP) will be the overall winner of the Spanish election, but without enough support to form a majority in the congress, even with the support of the far-right Vox.

The poll sees the People's Party winning 122-140 seats, seeing significant growth on their current 88. They would have an advantage of 0.2 percentage points of the vote share over the Socialist party, who are predicted to win 115-135 seats, similar to their current 120. 

However, the right-wing party would not have a majority in the Spanish congress, even if adding their seats with the far-right Vox, who are predicted to take 21-29 seats, down from their current 52. 

There are 350 seats in Spain's Congress of Deputies, meaning 176 seats are needed for a majority. 

Sumar, the new left-wing platform led by Yolanda Díaz which incorporates the current junior partner in the Spanish government, Unidas Podemos, are expected to be the third biggest group, with 43-50 seats. Currently, Podemos hold 33 seats.

Among Catalan voters only, the CIS poll foresees a victory for the Socialists with 18-22 seats, followed by Sumar with 7-9 and the PP with 6-8. 

Esquerra, who won the Spanish election in Catalonia last time out, are fourth in the CIS poll with a projected 5-7 seats, ahead of Junts (3-6), Vox (2-3) and CUP (0-1).

Catalan parliament

Meanwhile, if the Catalan elections were to take place today, the Socialists and Esquerra Republicana would be neck-and-neck in the number of seats according to a poll by the CEO, with both ranging from 31 to 36 (ERC) or 37 (PSC).

Junts, the former junior partner in the Catalan coalition government, would remain the third strongest group, winning 25-30 seats, losing at least 2 seats.

The big surprise comes from unionist conservative PP jumping from 3 seats to 13-17.

Just as there is little to separate the most-voted parties, the same could also happen with the smaller groups. CUP (currently on 9) and En Comú Podem (8) would win 7-11 seats, just followed by Vox (11) with 6-10 seats.

The poll also estimates that parties that favor a split from Spain would get between 63-77 seats, with 68 needed for a majority in the parliament of 135 seats. This would be five more seats than those predicted in the November 2022 poll and three more than the survey published in April 2023.

Pro-independence groups have together been in control of the parliament for a decade now, with 74 MPs between them at the moment. 

While July's poll sees the Socialists taking 31-37 seats, this is a drop from the 34-40 seats forecasted in April.

The survey questioned 2,000 people between May 29 and June 26. 

Support for independence

According to the same poll, 52% of Catalans would vote 'no' in an independence referendum, while only 42% would go for 'yes.' 

Regarding the best way to resolve the underlying political conflict, 30% of those surveyed said the solution has to come through talks between Madrid and Barcelona, 10% of Catalans favor a unilateral path towards independence, and 7% are in favor of Spain's unity without negotiations.