Socialists and ruling Esquerra neck and neck in latest poll

The Socialist Party and Esquerra Republicana, senior government partner in the current Catalan government, would be neck and neck in first place in a potential election, according to a poll published on Thursday by the Catalan government-funded Center for Opinion Studies (CEO). 

The left-wing unionist party ruling over Spain would get 34 to 39 seats (they amassed 33 in the latest election), while the also left-wing pro-independence party leading Catalonia would achieve 33 to 38 (they tied at 33 with the Socialists in the 2021 election). 

Junts, also pro-independence and now junior partner in the Catalan cabinet, would fall from the current 32 to between 23 and 28. 

Yet, the bloc in favor of a split with Spain would be likely to maintain the majority in parliament, with 64 to 77 seats, taking into account that 68 seats would be needed for a majority. 

Like now, Esquerra and Junts would need far-left CUP (with 10 seats now and estimated 8 to 11 in the CEO poll) to surpass unionists in the chamber. 

Vox would keep the fourth spot, with 9 to 12 seats (11 now), and CUP would come fifth with 8 to 11 (10 seats now). 

Meanwhile, unionist Ciudadanos continues in freefall. They lost 30 seats in 2021 and got only 6, but the CEO poll estimates even gloomier results for the next election at 0 to 4. 

This would benefit the People's Party, which would increase its MPs from 3 to between 6 and 8. 

If no snap election is called, Catalans will have to decide their representatives in parliament in February 2025. 

81% in favor of an independence referendum

According to the same poll, which surveyed 2,000 people between March 1 and March 28, 48% of Catalans would vote 'no' in an independence referendum, while 44% would go for 'yes'. 

Yet, 81% of the population say that Catalonia has the right to decide on a split with Spain in a referendum – yet, for a decade, Madrid has argued that this possibility does not fall within the Spanish constitution. 

In the way ahead to resolve the underlying political conflict, 60% of those surveyed said the solution has to come through talks between Madrid and Barcelona, 11% of Catalans prioritize a unilateral path towards independence and 9% are in favor of Spain's unity without negotiations. 

A recent similar poll also by CEO but with a different methodology estimated that 53.3% of people are against Catalonia becoming an independent state, while only 38.8% are in favor of splitting from Spain.