Quebec experts warn that Clarity Act carries risks for Catalonia

"An agreement that establishes when and how we can exercise the right to decide again. As Canada and Quebec have done." 

With those words in September 2022, Catalan president Pere Aragonès raised the prospect of a Clarity Act on a future independence referendum. Six months later he launched an academic committee to explore the idea.   

But what is the view in Quebec of Canada's Clarity Act, approved by the federal government in 2000, without agreement from pro-independence parties? 

The Catalan News Agency (ACN) spoke to experts from Quebec, who warn that the Clarity Act carries "risks," and recommend that Aragonès acts "prudently." 

Meanwhile Jöel Arseneau of the pro-independence Parti Québécois (PQ, Quebec Party) advises the Catalan government to "get along" with Madrid, and to seek international support to push Spain towards accepting a referendum. 

"Noble gesture" 

"If the government wants to be inspired by the Clarity Act, they should be prudent," says Daniel Turp, emeritus professor at the Faculty of Law at the University of Montreal and a former pro-independence politican. 

Turp warns that the legislation was intended to "dissuade" pro-independence parties in Quebec from organizing further referendums – after the 1980 and 1995 votes, which were tolerated by Canada, but not organized with the agreement of the federal government. 

The Catalan government's pursuit of a Clarity Act is a "noble gesture," Turp says, and asks "What is Spain afraid of? It is very democratic." 

Turp, president of the Research Institute on Self-Determination of Peoples and National Independence (IRAI), views Aragonès' proposal as being aimed at achieving the same outcome as Scotland obtained, namely the agreed referendum in 2014 after negotiations with the United Kingdom. 

"A starting point"  

Alain G Gagnon, a professor at the University of Quebec at Montreal says a Clarity Act "would at least be a starting point for exercising self-determination," in Catalonia. 

Gagnon, co-author of 'The Catalan Process: Sovereignty, Self-determination and Democracy in the 21st Century', published in 2017, predicts the Spanish government "will say that Catalans should not be given the option of exercising self-determination, even if it is the most moderate way." 

But a third academic that ACN spoke to, Patrick Taillon, is more optimistic. Taillon, a professor of constitutional law at Laval University in Quebec, believes that the Catalan government can use international law to push its position. 

The Spanish government "would also benefit from being inspired by the Canadian example," he says. 

While letting Catalonia decide its future involves "political risks" from Madrid's point of view, the examples of Quebec and Scotland show "how difficult" it is to reach the threshold of 50% support in a referendum, Taillon says. 

"A true democratic debate and a free vote is more valuable than a deterioration of relations," he adds. 

Taillon recommends that Madrid shows "good faith, dialogue, negotiation and deliberation" to avoid a "constitutional deadlock." Otherwise, in the long term it will have to face "much more serious risks for the future of Spain." 

"Democratic pressure" 

And what do current pro-independence politicians in Quebec make of Aragonès' proposal? 

Jöel Arseneau, a PQ spokesperson on international affairs, believes that Canada's Clarity Act was made to "restrict Quebecers," rather than facilitate a new referendum in Quebec. 

He advises Catalan independence supporters to "get along with the Spanish government," but at the same time points out that they will have to seek international support to exert "some democratic pressure" on Spain, so that it accepts a referendum in Catalonia. 

Canada's Clarity Act 

Canada's Clarity Act was a law approved by the Canadian parliament in 2000, to establish the conditions for an independence referendum in Quebec or any Canadian province. 

The law was created as a response to the 1995 Quebec referendum, marked by a very tight result – 50.6% in favor of independence and 49.4% against – and a question that many considered ambiguous. 

Unlike in Canada, where it is Canada and not Quebec that put the measure forward, in Catalonia, it is a party seeking independence that wants a Clarity Act-like deal. Other pro-independence campaigners fear such a deal would only hinder Catalonia's chances of becoming independent if it ever were to materialize. 

Aragonès has already commissioned a first report from the Clarity Act committee and called a meeting with all parties in June, following the local elections in May, to discuss its findings.