Puigdemont awaits European court verdict on parliamentary immunity aiming to return

Former Catalan president Carles Puigdemont faces a key week for his political future. On Wednesday, the General Court of the European Union (EGC) will deliver a ruling on his immunity as a Member of the European Parliament (MEP).

Magistrates will rule on Puigdemont's appeal against his fellow MEPs voting to remove his immunity - Spain's judiciary requested his privileges be lifted in order to continue his extradition process. Spanish Supreme Court judge Pablo Llarena is the man given the responsibility of investigating Catalonia's independence push which peaked in 2017. 

Puigdemont was the president of Catalonia during the time of that vote and left the country alongside some of his ministers some weeks afterward to continue fighting for independence from abroad. In the intervening years, he, along with other exiled leaders Toni Comín and Clara Ponsatí, has been elected as an MEP. 

So what does the future have in store for Puigdemont after Wednesday's ruling? 

There are different possible outcomes of the ruling and further nuances to be considered. 

The ex-president could be given a resolution in his favor, meaning that the ECG would rule that the European Parliament should not have lifted his immunity. This could potentially boost Puigdemont's chances of making a possible return to Catalonia.

If this is the case, the defense team will ask the Spanish Supreme Court to withdraw the national arrest warrants. Opening the door for the EP to appeal the ruling.

The defense team of the pro-independence leaders are fighting this case based on what they view as a lack of impartiality from the president of the European Parliament's Legal Affairs Committee, Adrián Vázquez of unionist Ciudadanos.

The court could also rule in favor of the European Parliament and confirm that MEPs were right in lifting the immunity of Puigdemont, Ponsatí, and Comín. 

A last option would be for the ECG to rule that the European Arrest Warrants were issued for the crime of sedition, which is no longer a crime in the Spanish penal code, and therefore, Pablo Llarena would have had to issue new warrants following the new crimes for which Puigdemont, Ponsatí, and Comín are charged with.

The ECG will also give their ruling on the authority of the Spanish Supreme Court to make such a request to the European Parliament over stripping the MEPs of their immunity. The European court will have to evaluate what authority member states' Supreme Courts have to make such a request. 

If the exiled Catalan politicians lose in the ruling, the defense team already plans on appealing the decision and requesting precautionary measures to provisionally restore their immunity while a final decision is being weighed up.

If appealed, the CJEU would probably, rule on the matter in early 2024, just months before the next European Parliament elections, to be held in May next year.

However, the defense team also expects Llarena to reactivate the arrest warrants or issue new ones, but they trust that Belgian authorities will not execute them until Luxembourg issues a final decision after appeals.

Penal code reform

New arrest warrants could be necessary because –key to this whole situation– Spain has reformed its penal code in the time since the arrest warrants were issued and the MEPs had their immunity stripped. 

Llarena first sought Puigdemont and the other political leaders for sedition, the crime for which other Catalan independence leaders were convicted of, but sedition no longer forms part of the Spanish penal code. Instead, it has been replaced by a lesser 'aggravated public disorder,' which the Supreme Court has already dismissed as a charge for the exiled politicians.