Pro-independence parties would keep majority in an election, says poll

The pro-independence parties would hold on to their majority in the Catalan parliament if there were an election, says the latest poll by the Center for Opinion Studies (CEO).

According to the research, the Esquerra party (ERC) would win between 38 and 40 seats, with the Junts per Catalunya party (JxCat) getting from 25 to 27.

While the poll suggests JxCat would lose between 7 and 9 seats, the pro-independence, far-left CUP party would increase its share from 4 seats to up to 7.

That would mean that the three pro-independence parties between them would get from 69 to 74 seats, higher than the 68 required for a majority in the chamber. They currently hold 70 seats.

As for the chamber's opposition parties, the unionist Ciutadans party (Cs) would lose 13 seats, dropping to between 23 and 24, with the Socialists (PSC) gaining 8 seats to 25 in all.

The CEO poll also has the left-wing Catalunya en Comú Podem party increasing its seats to 11 or 12, with the unionist People's Party losing 1 seat, leaving it with just three MPs.

More against independence than in favor

As for the support among the public for Catalan independence, the latest figures show that those against once more slightly outnumber those in favor.

The CEO research estimates that those against independence stands at 48.3%, compared to 44% of people in favor of an independent Catalonia.

The previous poll in May indicated that 48.6% of those surveyed would vote against Catalonia splitting from Spain, compared to 47.2% in favor.

ERC to repeat victory in Spanish congress

As for the situation in Spain as a whole, a new general election would see ERC consolidating its victory in the April 28 election, with 14 to 16 seats. It currently has 15 seats in congress.

Meanwhile, the unionist PSC would slightly increase its current 12 seats in the Spanish chamber to 13 or 14, according to the poll.

With the Spanish Socialists failing to have their leader Pedro Sánchez elected president this week, the chances of a new general election in November have increased.