Pro-independence parliament majority at risk with major losses for party that broke coalition, says poll

The pro-independence majority in the Catalan parliament would be at risk if a new election were ti take place this Sunday. 

The latest CEO poll, the Catalan-government owned survey agency, estimates that the parties that favor a split with Spain would get between 57-72 seats, with 68 needed for a majority. 

Pro-independence groups have together been in control of the parliament for a decade now, with 74 MPs between them at the moment. 

The poll, published on Wednesday, sees the Socialists extend their lead, becoming clearly the first party at 35-41 seats. In the February 2021 vote, they came first with 33 representatives, tied with Esquerra. 

The Socialists would hit their best result since the 2003 election when they won 42 seats, which was enough to reach the Catalan government and take the presidency for the first time ever.

Esquerra, the political force that has been alone in government in Catalonia for a month now, would be second again with roughly the same result as now (30-36).

Also pro-independence Junts, who was the junior partner of a coalition with Esquerra until early October, would see a gloomy scenario for the next election in the first CEO poll after the coalition breakup. 

The party once led by exiled former Catalan president Carles Puigdemont would get 19-24 MPs, down from the current 32.

Another major shift would be seen among the unionist right. Far-right Vox made a breakthrough in 2021 with 11 seats, but the latest poll suggests they would drop to 6-10. 

The main party that has benefited from this trend would be the People’s Party, which would skyrocket from 3 to 11-16, coming close to their all-time high of 19 in 2012. 

The conservatives would also gain ground thanks to the fall of Ciudadanos, who are projected to drop from their current 6 MPs to between 0 and 4. The party led by Inés Arrimadas could be out of the chamber for the first time since its breakthrough in 2006.

At the other end of the political spectrum, far-left pro-independence CUP is expected to remain stable at 8-12 seats, meaning they could potentially drop one or gain three from their current 9.

En Comú Podem's projected results vary between 6-10, a similar result to their current 8 seats.

 

The poll took the opinions of 2,000 people between September 27 and October 21, both before and after the government breakup which was confirmed on October 7.