Political scientist: 'An agreement to elect Pedro Sánchez as PM is plausible'

The hung parliament following the  July 23 election means the path to forming a new government is not a straightforward one.

While the conservative People's Party (PP) won the highest number of seats in congress, 137 in total, they fell short of an absolute majority (176) to form a government. Even the support of far-right Vox is not enough, as together, they have 172 seats.

The left-wing bloc, formed by the Socialists and Sumar in a coalition in addition to Catalan pro-independence Esquerra Republicana (ERC) and other regional parties, does not have majority support either, with only 171 seats in total. 

  

However, Pedro Sánchez could still end up holding on to his position as prime minister. In a twist of fate, the only party that could break the tie in favor of one of the blocks or the other is Carles Puigdemont's hardline pro-independence Junts party. 

Catalan News interviewed Marc Guinjoan, a researcher at the University of Barcelona's Institutions and Political Economy Research Group (IPERG) and an associate professor at the Open University of Catalonia to find out what future political scenarios are possible.

What is Junts' position on a possible agreement?

In the previous legislature, Junts was in the opposition. And in general, they do not feel that dialogue is needed. They are willing to proclaim Catalan independence from Spain unilaterally. They are not expected to strictly reach agreements with Spanish political parties, so we can expect Junts to hold really harsh negotiations with the Socialists.

Junts criticized ERC a lot for reaching agreements with the Socialists and Unidas Podemos (a predecessor of Sumar) coalition government during the last years. Although in the electoral campaign Junts said that they would not be speaking with other parties unless this would mean holding a referendum of self-determination and an amnesty for those legally affected by the October 1 independence referendum [deemed illegal by Spain], it seems that the party is going to sit and talk with other parties because they know they can negotiate. They know they have a crucial role, and although there might not be an agreement, at least they are willing to talk.

Can the Socialists to fulfill Junts' requests?

A referendum cannot be expected, and Puigdemont is aware of that because, in his speech, he did not mention a referendum as a condition. That would be a red line for the Socialists and even for Sumar. However, an amnesty could be expected.

Whether it is called an amnesty or it has another name, it is a possibility to see some kind of general pardon. We have the experience of the specific pardons that were passed in 2021 for the nine jailed referendum organizers, so we can expect something along those lines.

After Puigdemont's speech, I find the investiture of Pedro Sánchez more likely than it was some days ago or a month ago. The day after the elections, personally, it was very unlikely that an agreement between the two parties could be reached. But now it looks like it is plausible.