Only Spanish party supporting a Catalan referendum to come second in 26-J election, according to new poll

Barcelona (CNA).- The conservative People’s Party (PP) will win the Spanish elections on the 26^th of June, but ‘Unidos Podemos’, the coalition between Podemos and Izquierda Unida (IU), will come second and oust the Socialist Party (PSOE), which would become the third party, pushing liberal C’s to fourth, according to a poll published on Thursday just hours before the Spanish electoral campaign kicks off. ‘Unidos Podemos’, which is the only Spanish political force that supports the celebration of a Catalan referendum on independence, would be the most voted political option in Catalonia, achieving between 14 and 15 seats, followed by the left-wing pro-independence party Esquerra Republicana (ERC), which would come second with between 8 and 9 deputies. The Catalan Socialists would be third, with 8, and the liberal and pro-independence Convergència Democràtica (CDC) would come fourth and get between 6 and 7 members of parliament. The Spanish Congress, however, would continue to be deeply fragmented and the balance of power could, once again, fall into the hands of the Catalan parties, as no major party would have the numbers to form a majority government. 

According to the poll, the PP, led by current Spanish President Mariano Rajoy, could get between 118 and 121 seats in the Spanish Congress, less than in the December election, when they got 123. The big story is that the coalition between Podemos and IU, led by Pablo Iglesias and Alberto Garzón, and which has strong links with regional leaders such as Ada Colau in Catalonia and others in Valencia and Galicia, could get between 88 and 92 seats, up from the 71 they got in the last election. The PSOE would get an even lower result than last time, when it already registered its worst performance ever, and become the third party with between only 78 and 80 members of parliament. Liberal Ciudadanos, led by Albert Rivera, would also lose ground, and achieve between 38 and 39 seats.

No Spanish party, however, would get an overall majority, and coalitions or agreements would be needed in order to form a government if these predictions come true on Election Day. The overall majority in the Spanish Congress stands at 176 seats. A coalition between ‘Unidos Podemos’ and PSOE would need external support from other parties, and Catalan ones, such as ERC and CDC, already pointed out in the last election that they would only vote ‘yes’ to a government that allows a referendum on independence. It would remain to be seen, however, whether the PSOE would be willing to be the minority partner in a ‘Unidos Podemos’-led government, or would rather try a grand coalition with the PP. What is clear is that, with the results of this poll, PSOE and Ciudadanos, which in this term tried to form a coalition, would find this even more complicated than before.