Oct 1 referendum: only one month to go

There is only one month until October 1, a day marked in red in Catalonia. The country’s government is planning to hold a referendum in exactly 30 days, but it is still not clear if it will take place and how will the international community react to it. There are still some areas which need more clarification, especially in terms of logistics or legal framework. The Spanish government has been saying for months that such a vote will not be allowed, but Mariano Rajoy’s cabinet hasn't disclosed how it will stop the referendum either.

“The vote will not take place. One month before it is supposedly going to take place, there is no legal framework, no logistics and no signature [calling the vote],” said Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría, the Spanish vice president. “We will celebrate the referendum, and if they want to negotiate the terms at the last minute, we are ready to do so,” answered the Catalan president, Carles Puigdemont, on Thursday. How citizens will react to Madrid’s actions as well as the turnout of the vote are some other unsolved questions regarding October 1. These are the five main elements to understand the upcoming vote.

1. Logistics: list of voters, polling stations, electoral board members and polling supervisors, yet to be announced

One of the most basic elements of the referendum are the ballot boxes. Last May, the Catalan government started a process to buy ballot boxes, inviting companies to bid to supply them. The process was declared void and, meanwhile, the Spanish prosecutor sued a Catalan minister for launching the purchase. However, the Catalan executive pledged to get the ballot boxes anyway. Last week, President Puigdemont said in an interview with the Financial Times that they already have “more than 6,000 ballot boxes.”

In addition it is still not known which list of voters will be used for the October 1 referendum, or which premises will be used as polling stations. This is an important issue, since local city governments are the ones who give permission for the polling stations that are used in normal elections. Since the vote has not yet been convened, the local governments have not yet confirmed whether they will give permission this time as well.

However, almost 800 local governments out of a total of 948 are openly in favor of independence, so they are indeed expected to facilitate sites for the polling stations. “100% unconditional support,” pledged Neus Lloveras, the president of the entity comprising these 800 towns. The government is preparing a list of alternative sites in case some particular local council is not willing to collaborate.

Once the referendum law is passed, more details should unfold, including the list of voters, the polling stations, the Electoral Board members and the draw to appoint polling supervisors.

2. Legal framework: clash over the passing of the referendum law expected for next week

The legal framework supporting the vote will also be a key issue in the coming weeks. The pro-independence parties have written and submitted a referendum law, but they are still considering the best way to pass it before the Spanish government and courts can stop it as it wends its way through the parliamentary proceedings. Sources say that the pro-independence parties will try to pass the legislation in the next plenary session, which begins on September 6.

Nevertheless, the pro-Spanish union lawmakers in the Catalan chamber are not expected to sit back and do nothing. Tension will reign during next week’s plenary and the Parliament’s president, Carme Forcadell, will be at the eye of the storm. Some MPs from the Catalan branch of Podemos, which have an ambiguous position on independence, have already declared that they will not vote 'no' on the bill.

The parties in favor of creating a new Catalan state have also presented a transition law, which will only enter into effect in the event that the Yes vote wins on October 1. It is meant to work as a provisional Catalan Constitution. They have also pledged to pass this legislation in September.