Independence opposition has 7-point lead over supporters, according to latest poll

Barcelona (ACN) – A "no" vote is favoured by 50% of the population, according to the latest barometer by the Centre for Opinion Studies (CEO), which was made public Friday. The unionist option grew 2 points compared to March, the same amount the "yes" option lost, which stands at 42.9%. "The distance between the two options is considerable", said the director of the CEO, Jordi Argelaguet. Until now, they had stayed "neck and neck" in the most recent barometers; although for months the "no" vote maintained an upward trend. When the options were expanded beyond the plebiscite, an independent state was the top choice (37.6%), ahead of becoming an autonomous region (29.3%) and a federal state (24%). 

 

Between "yes" and "no," there had practically been no transfer of votes in recent barometers, according to Argelaguet. The "no" has grown based on the definition of the undecided, although in the survey presented on Friday it looks like the pro-independence is on a downward trend. "The distance is not insurmountable for one side and it guarantees nothing for the other", warned the head of the CEO, who has doubts on whether the independence movement has reached its "ceiling".

The barometer presented Friday concludes that as of now, 50% of Catalans are not in favour of independence, 42.9% are for independence and 5.8% are undecided (1.3% did not give an answer). Four months ago the CEO showed a different picture, with 48% in support of a "no" vote, 44.1% favouring "yes" and 7.8% undecided or without an answer.

The "no" vote is widening its majority between the voters for the PPC (97.8%), C's (94%), PSC (85.5%) and Podem (70.4%). Supporters for these strong "no" parties comprised 29% of those polled. The ICV-EUiA electorate is more divided, although it is leaning toward "no" with 49.7% as opposed to 39.1% who prefer independence. The ecosocialists (9.8%) and the PSC (8.1%) are those with the highest number of undecided.

"Yes" holds a majority among supporters of the ERC (93.7%), CUP (93%) and CiU (76.3%), and 34.2% of respondents said they would vote for one of these parties if there were an election today. Of the voters for the already-broken nationalist federation, CiU, 17.2% opted for "no". Since the survey was done without taking the dissolution of the CiU into consideration, Argelaguet explained that it is virtually impossible to determine exactly what proportion of the poll corresponds to those who prefer either the CDC or the UDC and it is unclear whether the separate parties' results would look anything like the CiU figure.

As for the multiple-answer section asking what the administrative structure of Catalonia should be, the independent state option continues to be the favourite option (37.6%), especially among voters of the ERC (89.5%), CUP (82.5%) and CiU (71%). Continuing as an autonomous community was preferred by 29.3% of respondents. Supporters for C's (62.9%), PPC (61.3%) and PSC (58.1%) are those in favour of the second option. Federalism is among the majority of voters for the ICV (52.1%) and those for Podem (46.4%). Although the PSC is the party that has championed this option in Catalonia, it has only convinced 28.5% of its voters.

In March of 2014 the independent state option reached its highest value (48.5%) in the history of the CEO survey. At that time, it exceeded the sum of supporters for remaining an autonomous region (18.6%) and becoming a federal state (21.3%). Diminishing support for the independent state option over the last year and a half has left it 10 percentage points lower, while the federal state option has gained 3 percentage points and the autonomous community has jumped by 11.

One thing that should be taken into consideration with these results is that the survey interviewed 2,000 people in Catalonia, but the questionnaires were distributed disproportionately to each province: 800 were sent to Barcelona and 400 each to Girona, Lleida and Tarragona. So even though the CEO only polled 800 residents in the Barcelona province, each response was weighted by an additional 86.5%, meaning that 40% of respondents accounted for 74.4% of the final statistics.