Hung parliament in Spain - what happens next?

Sunday's general election in Spain has left the country with an uncertain path forward. 

It was somewhat paradoxically a bitter victory for the right and a sweet defeat for the left, as the conservative People's Party won more seats than anyone else, but combined with the far-right Vox and right-wing Navarran party Unión del Pueblo Navarro (UPN), the bloc doesn't have a majority in congress to name Alberto Núñez Feijóo the new Prime Minister. 

Meanwhile, the Socialists defied the polls and actually gained two seats, when most predicted them to lose representation in the chamber. Yet, the left-wing bloc with Sumar also doesn't amount to a majority in Congress, meaning the spotlight turns to the Basque and Catalan parties. 

Combined, the support of the Socialists, Sumar, Basque parties PNV and Eh Bildu, Galician party BNG, and Catalan pro-independence Esquerra Republicana again still don't add up to enough – combined these parties hold 172 seats in the chamber, while 176 are needed for a majority. 

Attention then turns to the hardline pro-independence Junts per Catalunya, who have previously shown little interest in facilitating any kind of government in Spain, in the face of what they view as attacks against Catalonia's sovereignty and culture during the last term. 

In this uncertain landscape, the only possible scenarios for Spain to move forward are: 

1. The Socialists negotiate a deal with Junts for the Catalan party at least to abstain in the voting, which could see Pedro Sánchez named PM again. This will be difficult as Junts won't price their support cheaply. 

2. The Socialists support the right-wing People's Party, as between them, the two biggest parties have a clear majority. However, this outcome seems very unlikely. 

3. The People's Party seeks the support of Basque or Catalan parties to govern with Vox. Again, this scenario seems practically impossible.

4. The Spanish congress cannot name a new Prime Minister and Spaniards will return to the polls around seven months after July's vote.

Repeat elections are nothing new in Spanish politics – if it happens, it would be the third time in the past decade that elections proved inconclusive and citizens were forced to cast ballots again. 

In 2016, the People's Party, led by Mariano Rajoy, won the vote but didn't try to have the sitting PM named leader of the executive again because of a lack of support in the chamber. Elections were repeated, and a similar outcome was returned. However, that time, the Socialists abstained in the voting to name a new PM to avoid a third election. 

In 2019, Pedro Sánchez's Socialists came out on top, but combined with the left-wing Podemos, the bloc still didn't have enough support. Elections were repeated, and the left-bloc's representation was weakened slightly, but the Socialists were then humbled enough to turn to the regional Basque and Catalan parties to seek the requisite support to govern.