First poll predicts ERC to win Catalan elections, Cs to lose up to 20 seats

The first polls predicting the results of the upcoming Catalan elections say that Esquerra Republicana Catalana (ERC) would win the elections with 33-34 seats in parliament. 

The poll was made by the Office of Social Studies and Public Opinion (GESOP) and published by the newspaper El Periódico. 

Junts per Catalunya, meanwhile, would lose four seats and drop to 29-30, losing their status as the biggest pro-independence force. 

Unionist Ciutadans are currently the single party with most seats in parliament, but forecasts see them losing as many as 20 seats, dropping from the current 36 to 16-17. 

Propping up the current Catalan government partners are the far-left pro-independence party CUP, who would see their number of MPs double, going from 4 to 8-9. 

Both the Catalan Socialists and left-wing Catalunya En Comú-Podem (CatECP) would improve their results, with 22-23 and 11-12 respectively, up from the current 17 and 8. CatECP are the only party not aligned in the independence question.

The right-wing People’s Party looks set for a slight rise, to 5-6, while the far-right Vox would enter the Catalan Parliament for the first time with 6 or 7 MPs.

According to this poll, independence could expand the absolute majority by a few seats, as there are currently 70 deputies between ERC, JxCat and CUP. 

These forecasted results would see the pro-independence bloc rise from 70 to possibly up to 73, however still falling short of a majority of all votes with 47.6% - the 2017 election saw 47.8% of voters side with pro-independence parties. 

On the other hand, Cs, PPC and Vox as a whole would have 27-30 MPs, while the sum of PPC and Cs today is 40 seats. Regarding the decline of Ciutadans, as predicted by the poll, almost 14% of Cs voters in 2017 would now move to Vox, which partly explains their strong entry into the chamber.