Everything you need to know about the Catalan election

What parties are running in the election?

There are seven parties expected to get seats in the Catalan parliament. Three are pro-independence, three are unionist, and one sits squarely in between blocs. The three pro-independence parties are Together for Catalonia (JxCat) headed by deposed Catalan president Carles Puigdemont, Esquerra Republicana (ERC) led by incarcerated vice president Oriol Junqueras, and CUP with Carles Riera number one on the ticket. ERC and the party that Together for Catalonia is based on have been ruling the Catalan government with CUP’s support.

Meanwhile, the three unionist parties are the People’s Party (PP) led by Xavier García Albiol, Ciutadans (Cs) headed by Inés Arrimadas, and the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) with Miquel Iceta at the helm. These three parties not only support the unity of Spain, they also all voted to implement Article 155 to seize Catalonia’s self-government.

The one party which has refused to stand with either bloc, Catalonia in Common (CeC), is in favour of an agreed referendum but against both unilateral independence and Spain’s measures to stop it.  

How does voting in Catalonia work?

5,554,394 Catalan citizens are called to the ballot boxes in the December 21 election. That day, they choose 135 MPs that will represent them in the Catalan Parliament. After the election, the elected MPs will vote for the candidate that they choose as president.

Thus, citizens don’t vote directly for their preferred president of the Catalan government, it’s instead up to the MPs to do so.

How many people can vote?

More than five million and a half citizens have the right to vote in the December 21 election. Of those, 5,328,013 live in Catalonia and 226,381 are outside the country. A total of 39,521 people have voted from abroad, including both temporary and permanent residents living outside Catalonia, an increase of 41.4% compared to two years ago.

Meanwhile, the number of registered residents voting by post from within Spain has fallen by 30%. One of the reasons for this decline might be that the voting is taking place on a weekday, and people are more likely to be in the country.

Key times in the Election Day

There are 2,680 polling stations all around Catalonia. They open at 9 in the morning until 8 at night, during which time citizens can cast their ballots. Voter turnout is released twice before the polling stations close. The first turnout rate is released at 1pm, and the second at 6pm, two hours before the polling stations close.

From 8pm, the results of the exit polls are released. But this year, Catalan and Spanish public broadcasting, as well as other private channels have rejected paying for an exit poll due to the their high cost. In fact, the exit poll outcome has proven far from being the final electoral results, lately. Thus, citizens will have to wait until around 10pm to have more precise knowledge about the final election results.        

What do the polls suggest?

Dozens of polls on the December 21 Catalan election have been published in the past few weeks. Each poll shows a different possible outcome. However, some trends can be observed.

-       The left-wing pro-independence Esquerra Republicana party is on its way to win the election. Almost all the polls put the candidacy in the 'pole position,' with 30-35 seats.

-       Ciutadans is once again expected to be the main unionist party. While it achieved an unprecedented result of 25 seats out of 135 in 2015, this time it may approach 30 seats, and be one of the contesters for the first spot.

-       Together for Catalonia would get up to 30 seats. Thus, it will almost have doubled its prospective compared to when the elections were first called by Mariano Rajoy.

-       No poll has predicted that unionist parties will get more seats than pro-independence candidacies, but it’s not clear whether pro-independence parties will achieve the majority in Parliament. Still, Esquerra and Together for Catalonia are expected to add up to 60 seats, while the far-left CUP is expected to get around the 8 needed to make up a majority.

What will be the outcome of the election?

It is very uncertain. Polls are not estimating a clear result, but if the pro-independence parties reach 68 seats (and thus, the majority in the chamber), it is very likely that Puigdemont and Junqueras' tickets repeat a government for the Catalan state. However, in this event it is very likely that they need the CUP to keep the majority. The far-left party has stated that it will only back a government committed to implement the independence. 

However, it is not clear who the president would be in this event. It will depend not only on whether which party gets more seats, but also on whether who will be effectively able to become president. Together for Catalonia's candidate, Carles Puigdemont, is in Brussels, while Esquerra's leader, Oriol Junqueras, is in prison. Both of them claim that they would be able to take office. 

But what if the pro-independence parties do not reach majority? Unionists might try to form a government, but it is very likely that they also need the support of Catalonia in Common, which is in between two blocs. Indeed, Catalonia in Common is willing to make a left-wing coalition with parties on both blocs, but it looks like they would be the only ones supporting this option.  

Why were these elections called?

Catalan elections usually take place every four years. With the last voting held in 2015, the country was not due for new ones until 2019. This all changed, however, with Catalonia’s push for sovereignty.

The independence roadmap had been on course for some time, but things switched into high gear following the October 1 referendum and the police violence from the Spanish law enforcement forces to stop it. Then, came the precautionary jailing of two pro-independence civil society leaders, Jordi Sànchez and Jordi Cuixart, accused of sedition for organizing the largest protests for the cause. As a declaration of independence looked more and more likely, Spanish president Mariano Rajoy threatened both the possibility of implementing Article 155 of the Spanish constitution to seize Catalonia’s self-rule, as well as of filing charges of rebellion against the Catalan government.

Then, on October 27, the Catalan Parliament declared unilateral independence. The Spanish government responded by immediately implementing the so-called “nuclear option,” Article 155, which included the immediate dissolution of the Catalan government and calling snap elections for December 21.  

What happened after the elections were called?

In the aftermath that followed, Catalan president Carles Puigdemont and half of his ousted government traveled to Brussels, allegedly not to “evade” justice but instead for lack of faith in due process and a fair treatment in Spain. Indeed, the Spanish Attorney General announced it would be filing a lawsuit against the Catalan executive, as well as the Catalan parliament president and bureau members who allowed the vote in the chamber to take place.

Eight government members who remained in Catalonia were sent to prison without bail on November 2. Meanwhile, the members of Catalan parliament were released on bond, but not after parliament president Carme Forcadell spent a night in prison. Then, after 32 days, on December 4, six of the incarcerated members of the Catalan government were released. Yet, vice president Oriol Junqueras and Home Affairs minister Joaquim Forn, along with grassroots leaders Jordi Sànchez and Jordi Cuixart still remain in jail. 

The Catalan officials who went to Brussels are still there, including Puigdemont. They were facing an international arrest warrant for around one month. However, just some days before a Belgian judge had to announce whether the ministers were extradited, Spain's Supreme Court withdrew the arrest warrant. Puigdemont said that the withdrawal was due to "fear" that the Belgian judge would decide not to execute the extradition.

One of the most contended issues in this election has been some candidate’s telling absence from the campaign trail. Some joined after having spent time in prison, but others still—notably, Puigdemont, Junqueras, and Sànchez—remain behind bars, or exiled abroad.