ERC would win election and pro-independence would surpass 50% of votes – exit poll

Pro-independence ERC would win the Catalan election according to the exit poll taken by public broadcasters TV3 and Catalunya Ràdio, published on Sunday at 8pm, when all polling stations closed their doors. 

The survey projects ERC garnering 36-38 seats and 24.3% of the ballots, while the Socialists would come second with 34-36 MPs but 24.5% of votes, slightly ahead of the left-wing pro-independence force. 

Junts per Catalunya, the senior government partner in a joint coalition with ERC in the last term, would come third with 30-33 seats and 20.5% of the ballots. 

The two parties combined with other pro-independence forces, CUP and PDeCAT, look set to amass over half of the ballots for the first time, specifically 52.7%. 

#ÚltimaHora ERC guanyaria frec a frec amb el PSC i l'independentisme superaria el 50% de vots, segons el sondeig de TV3 i Catalunya Ràdio https://t.co/aFbn8E2aib #14FTV3 #14F pic.twitter.com/E4ODVFe4a4

— 324.cat (@324cat) February 14, 2021

The poll estimates a fierce battle for the fourth position with the far-left CUP garnering 7 seats, but with practically nothing separating unionist Cs, left-wing Catalunya en Comú - Podem and far-right Vox, all taking an expected 6-7 seats. 

The People’s Party would equal or slightly increase its representation at 4 to 5 seats, while centre-right pro-independence PDeCAT would struggle to enter parliament with between 0-2.

Three-way tie, according to ‘El Periódico’ and BTV

Yet, this is not the only poll published at 8pm: a survey by El Periódico and BTV estimate a much tighter scenario.

The Socialists, ERC and Junts per Catalunya would all get 31-33 seats, with the unionists coming first in number of votes (22.7%), Aragonès’ party second (20.4%) and Laura Borràs’ and Carles Puigdemont’s force third (20%).

This survey is an update of a poll published in the past few days and puts Vox in fourth place at 10-11 seats.

Catalunya en Comú - Podem would be fifth, at 8-9 MPs, with CUP following them closely at 7-8. Unionist Ciudadanos and the People’s Party would get 6-7, while PDeCAt 0-2.

JxCat winner, according to ‘The National’ 

Another updated recent poll published both by the Catalan newspaper El Nacional and the Scottish daily ‘The National’ estimates that JxCat would prevail with 32-33 seats, with the Socialists threatening the top spot at 29-32 and ERC third, garnering 28-29. 

Cs would be fourth (10-11), Catalunya en Comú - Podem fifth (9-11) and they would be followed by Vox and CUP, tied at 8-9. PP would get 3-5 MPs and PDeCAT, 0-2. 

2017 result

In 2017, unionist Ciudadanos came first with 36 MPs, JxCat running together with PDeCAT finished second picking up 34 MPs, and ERC third at 32. 

The Socialists were fourth, winning 17 seats, with Catalunya en Comú - Podem garnering 8. The People's Party and CUP came last with 4 seats each, while Vox did not run.