Catalan independence referendum: what you need to know

Catalans are called today to vote on independence from Spain in a referendum that the government in Catalonia has tried to carry out despite opposition from Spanish institutions, resulting in one of the greatest political crisis in decades.

October 1 has finally come after weeks of intense efforts from the judiciary and law enforcement agencies to impede the vote: following the suspension by the Spanish Constitutional Court, police have raided government buildings, arrested Catalan high-ranking officials, shut down hundreds of websites and confiscated millions of ballot papers and referendum material.

Over the last two days, hundreds have stayed overnight in would-be polling stations to prevent them from being sealed off. Meanwhile, the Spanish government insisted on Saturday that the vote has been hampered as police raided Catalonia's government Telecommunications and IT Center, as well as a building that was to be used as a call center during the referendum.

The Catalan government is not backing down and says the vote is going ahead. Still, a lot of question marks remain in place. Here’s what you need to know.

What will happen today?

According to figures provided by the Catalan government, some 5.3 million citizens are called to vote at more than 6,000 polling places distributed among 2,315 polling stations throughout the country. Over 7,200 people will supervise the election. Polling stations will open from 9am to 8pm. 

Yet, it is not clear how many of these polling stations will eventually open — and if they do, in what conditions.
The Spanish High Court in Catalonia ordered the Catalan police, the Mossos, to seal off polling stations on Sunday morning. The Spanish Home Affairs Ministry has pressured the Mossos to evict people from would-be polling centers. So far, though, the Catalan police has avoided removing citizens from any building.

Officers will start to appear in polling stations at 6am, but they could let the vote proceed under some circumstances: for instance, if old people and children are found there or people resist leaving the building. Pro-referendum organizations have called people “of all ages” to “peacefully defend” the polling stations.

The Catalan government is confident the Mossos will stick to their pledge to avoid unrest. But it is not clear what the role of Spanish law enforcement agencies will be, as thousands of officers arrived in recent days to Catalonia from all parts of Spain.

Will the referendum be binding?

According to the referendum laws passed by the Catalan Parliament, independence will be declared 48 hours after the official results are announced, should the “yes” vote win. There is no minimum participation threshold for the referendum to be valid.

Yet, the Catalan government has recently acknowledged that depending on the circumstances of the vote it will not declare independence immediately after. However, their only pro-independence partner, the anti-capitalist CUP, has pressured the executive to go ahead with the initial plans and declare independence if a majority of people vote for it.

Whatever happens, the Spanish government has made it clear that it will not recognize the vote.

Is the referendum legal?

The Catalan government says it is. It argues that Catalonia has the right to self-determination, and therefore the Catalan Parliament is the place where the will of the Catalan people is ultimately expressed. Since the referendum laws were passed by a majority of MPs, the Catalan government says the vote is legitimate.

The Spanish government says it is not. It argues that the referendum and its legal framework was suspended by the Constitutional Court, and therefore by carrying it out the Catalan government is breaching Spanish law. Moreover, Spain’s ruling People’s Party has refused to allow an independence vote alleging it goes against the Constitution, which enshrines Spain’s “indivisibility.”

Arguably, an agreed referendum could be allowed if a majority of MPs in the Spanish Parliament voted in favor. Yet, the only major party advocating for it is the left-wing Podemos, Spain’s third largest party. The main opposition party, the Socialists, advocate for a reform of the Constitution, but would not consider allowing an independence vote.