50% of Catalans support calling a referendum without Spain’s permission

Barcelona (CNA).- 50.3% of Catalans want to call a referendum on independence even if the Spanish Government refuses to agree to it, according to the latest polls by the Centre for Opinion Studies (CEO). This is the first time that the Center has considered this possibility in their survey. In such circumstances, 43.3% would vote in favor of Catalonia’s independence, 22.2% would vote against while 20.7% would abstain.  To the generic question of whether Catalonia should be an independent state, 48.5% of the polled said ‘no’, a figure which is 3 points higher than in the last CEO poll while 44.3% would vote in favor of independence. The CEO also noted that the pro-independence majority in the Parliament, composed by governing cross-party coalition Junts Pel Sí and radical-left CUP would lose influence. While Junts Pel Sí would win the Catalan elections again if celebrated today, they would lose between 4 and 2 MPs. Similarly, the CUP’s representation in the chamber could fall from 10 to 8.

The question which generates the highest consensus is about the need to hold a referendum in Catalonia. 73.3% of the surveyed answered ‘yes’. Those who would oppose Catalonia’s independence have grown in 2 points comparison to CEO’s last barometer and reached 48.5%. Pro-independence supporters represent 44.3%.

According to CEO’s director, Jordi Argelaguet, the figures show that those who are in favor of Catalonia’s independence will vote ‘yes’ even if there is no agreement about the referendum with the Spanish State. However, those who oppose Catalonia’s independence “are equally divided” since 22% will vote and say ‘no’ whereas 20.7% will abstain. Those who support ‘no’ also have doubts regarding whether they should participate in the referendum, since by doing so they “would legitimate” the vote, Argelaguet concluded.

Pro-independence majority in the Parliament at risk

The CEO also shows that the two main pro-independence parties in the chamber, Junts Pel Sí and CUP, would lose influence. Indeed, they may not reach the 68 MP majority they currently have in the 135 seat Parliament.

According to the poll, Junts Pel Sí could fall from its current 62 MPs to 58 or 60. The other main pro-independence party in the chamber, the radical-left CUP, would also lose 2 MPs.