Is climate change to blame for the floods in Valencia? Experts weigh in

The Valencia floods of October 29 will go down in history as the deadliest disaster in modern Spanish history and the most catastrophic flood-related event in Europe in the past 50 years, claiming the lives of more than 229 people. 

One month on, the echoes of the tragedy continue to reverberate. The devastation on the ground remains palpable as communities struggle to recover from the catastrophic damage. 

Meanwhile, politicians are embroiled in a blame game over who is responsible, with potential legal consequences looming, while scientists work to understand the causes and scale of the disaster. 

"Climate change kills," said the Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez shortly after the disaster during COP29 in Baku, a bold statement linking both events immediately. But what do experts say? 

One of the first scientific groups to link climate change to the Valencia floods was Climameter, a EU project designed to provide a rapid experimental framework for understanding weather extremes in a climate context. 

In a report published shortly after the catastrophe, they released a rapid attribution analysis, where they found that the DANA, the weather event responsible for the floods, had been 15% more intense due to climate change. 

"Climate change has increased the intensity of the flooding," Davide Faranda, a co-author of the study, told Catalan News. 

The study compared the event with similar meteorological events in the region and found that the DANAs had 15% more moisture and were 3°C warmer, leading to more intense rainfall. 

In contrast, David Pino, full professor of Physics at the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya and expert in meteorological phenomena and floods, argues that while the DANA was "an extreme phenomenon," it is not "unusual" for the region. 

"I'm not a climate change denier, but it is important to recognize that these kinds of floods have occurred many times along the Mediterranean coast. The role of climate change is minor for the moment, or we do not yet have enough statistics to prove it," he explains. 

While Pino does not dispute the study's conclusion that 15% of the DANA's intensity was linked to climate change, he believes that even without that 15%, "the disaster would have been more or less the same." 

The scientist adds that one of the problems with these catastrophic floods is that people have been living in areas prone to extreme weather "without taking it into account." 

"We are really exposed to these types of floods, but we’ve spent decades building houses and infrastructure in areas where water is supposed to flow, regardless of that fact," he says. 

Constructing in flood-prone areas has increased our exposure to these weather events, he believes, while at the same time, "our vulnerability has decreased due to weather warnings." 

However, if these warnings are not followed -as happened in Valencia, where they were issued too late- the likelihood of a more impactful catastrophe "increases dramatically." 

"It is a political decision. The time between meteorological authorities issuing warnings and mobile phone alerts is a political decision. In Valencia, the information was provided correctly, but those in charge did not make the decision to send the alert in time," he explains. 

In the same vein, Faranda believes that weather warnings must be "taken seriously." The scientist stresses that the intensity of storms has reached a constant "red alert" level, which triggers warnings more frequently, and these need to be followed. 

"Climate change is not static. If we keep warming the atmosphere, these events will become more intense, and areas that were not flood-prone will face increased risk of flooding," he adds. 

But despite any measures we take to protect ourselves from extreme weather events, Faranda thinks that the only real solution is to reduce CO2 emissions. "It is our common responsibility." 

To learn more about the Valencia floods, their connection to climate change, and whether Catalonia is prepared for extreme weather events, listen to this episode of our podcast, Filling the Sink.