Catalonia 2023-2024: post-election talks, Catalan language, and drought

Summer is over, and with the arrival of Catalonia's National Day on September 11, the new academic year begins. Normally, the political world also wakes up again in September, but this year, there were fewer days of holidays for politicians to take after the Spanish election in July left a hung parliament.

This inconclusive result will be one of the main topics to watch during these next 11 months, especially during the next few weeks.

1. Spanish election with no clear winner forces negotiations

Thousands of Catalans voted on July 23 to elect lawmakers in the next Spanish congress in a snap election called by Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez the day after the local elections were held in May. A general election was due to take place before the end of the year anyway, but Sánchez brought the election forward to what was the middle of summer holidays for many. 

While the conservative People's Party (PP) won most seats, its leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, needs to negotiate with many parties to be able to be named the next prime minister. While he is attempting to form a government, it seems he will fall short of a majority to achieve his goal, leaving the path free for other candidates, such as Socialist Pedro Sánchez. However, Sánchez also needs the support of many, including pro-independence Junts.

The Catalan party is open to negotiating a historic agreement or contesting a new election. One of their prerequisites to begin talks about backing a potential prime ministerial bid of the Socialist candidate is an amnesty law for pro-independence figures. But while Junts is becoming one of the main players in this potential negotiation, the Socialist party also needs the support of left-wing coalition Sumar, Catalan pro-independence Esquerra Republicana, and other regional parties.

2. Potential new Spanish election mid-January

But finding a majority in Congress is no easy task. If no agreement is made, Spaniards will vote again in mid-January. This is because Feijóo, who is attempting to be the next prime minister, will have an investiture debate on September 26 and 27. Once that happens, a countdown starts, and politicians have two months to swear in a new prime minister before the chamber is automatically dissolved.

Listen to our Filling the Sink podcast episode published on September 9, 2023, to learn more about the Spanish election aftermath.

If there is another vote, it will be interesting to see what the Catalan pro-independence parties, Junts and Esquerra Republicana (ERC), do. Could they run in a coalition to gain more support and make the independence movement more prominent? Would they probably just stick to their last plan for July's election? This is one of the big questions, as in recent days after former Catalan president Carles Puigdemont opened the door to negotiations with the Socialists, many ERC leaders welcomed the news.

If no deal is reached by the end of November, Spaniards will vote again on January 14, 2024.

3. Catalan in school, Congress, and EU Parliament

Politicians will be focused on reaching amnesty deals and more, but one of the first agreements has been to use the Catalan language in the Spanish Congress. The deal was part of the support to name Socialist Francina Armengol the new speaker of the chamber.

Not even a month later, the use of Catalan in Congress is one step closer to becoming a reality after several left-wing and regional parties put forward a bill to make it official. The agreement also stipulated that Spain would request the Council of the European Union to make Catalan and other regional languages official, something which will face its first challenge on September 19, when foreign affairs ministers have to vote on whether to let the request continue its process or not.

Catalan will not only be a topic of discussion in chambers and institutions but also in schools. During the last few years, and especially in recent months, politicians in Catalonia and civil rights organizations have campaigned against the current language immersion system in place across the territory, which sets Catalan as the working language in schools. Now, after court decisions and new policies, the Bilingual School Association (AEB) will welcome several MEPs of the Petitions Committee to visit and study the immersion system in place in several education centers in December.

4. Carles Puigdemont's immunity as MEP

The European General Court (EGC) ruled that MEPs had the right to lift the immunity of Catalan pro-independence leaders Carles Puigdemont, Toni Comín, and Clara Ponsatí in early July. However, the decision was not yet a final one, as Puigdemont and other Junts MEPs already announced their plan to appeal the decision, and the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) will rule on the matter. This will most likely happen in early 2024, just months before the next European Parliament elections, which will be held in June next year.

The decision could be crucial for pro-independence figures residing outside of Spain after leaving the country due to their role in the 2017 self-determination referendum deemed illegal. However, the ruling may not have any effect on Puigdemont if he achieves an amnesty during the negotiations to back a potential prime ministerial bid of Pedro Sánchez.

5. Drought continues amid record-breaking temperatures

Outside of politics, one of the major challenges society will be facing this year is the climate emergency. Catalonia is in the midst of a more than 30-month-long drought, which does not seem like coming to an end soon.

Many towns placed stringent water restrictions in place during the summer, and many more recommend responsible use of water supplies. Recent rains have increased levels in many reservoirs, but the situation is still a difficult one.

This year has also been a constant reminder of how the future summers may look: hotter and drier, especially in July and August. Many places saw record-breaking temperatures during the day and at night, while the Mediterranean is getting warmer as well.