Pandemic situation remains stable as officials warn of ‘uptick’ in indicators

The Covid-19 situation in Catalonia is so far remaining relatively stable, despite warnings from health officials of an uptick in indicators with the arrival of the new Delta Plus variant to our shores. 

Much is unknown about the Delta Plus variant as of yet, but health minister Josep Maria Argimon has already stated that the expected data for the next week “worries” him.

Secretary for public health Carmen Cabezas warned that Catalonia was experiencing an “uptick” in pandemic indicators, although that is yet to be clearly borne out in the data, as neighbouring countries were also seeing their situations worsen.

Last Saturday, the health minister confirmed that a handful of Covid-19 Delta Plus variant cases have been detected in Catalonia. This led him to urge residents to "exercise extreme caution" as temperatures continue to drop and socializing takes place increasingly indoors.

Argimon also said that evidence points to the coronavirus being a seasonal illness, meaning it’s likely that the situation would worsen as we move into the colder months of autumn and winter.

However, he reiterated that EU Digital Certificates, also known as ‘Covid passports,’ would only be made mandatory to enter establishments if the health situation worsens. Currently, they are only in use to enter nightclubs, which reopened in early October. 

Speaking on the radio station SER, Argimon said it would be “preferable” to use the Covid passports instead of closing sectors off entirely, but he emphasized that “the less you have to use it, the better.” 

Pandemic indicators

Since the summer’s fifth wave, which peaked around mid-late July, the decrease in key pandemic indicators such as the 14-day incidence rate, the transmission rate, the outbreak risk, and hospital figures has stopped, and have all generally remained stable. 

In the past two weeks, the IA14, which counts the number of new cases seen in the previous 14 days per 100,000 population, has dropped from around 55 to 47 in the most recent update. This indicator peaked at 1,245 on July 22. 

In the same time period, the outbreak risk has risen slightly from 42 to 49, but this is well below the ‘high’ threshold of 100 which has not been surpassed since early September. July 9 saw the highest reading of this indicator, at 1,828. 

What has seen an increase has been the transmission rate, the average number of times somebody positive with Covid-19 will transmit the virus to another person. Over the last fortnight, this has gone up from 0.78 to 1.08 in the latest update provided by health authorities. 

One of the most important ways of understanding the pandemic indicators is by looking at the situation in hospitals. The number of hospitalizations and the number of patients requiring intensive care can give a picture of how the pandemic is developing. 

Currently, there are 337 patients in hospital with Covid-19 and 91 in ICUs. Looking back two weeks, these figures stood at 342 and 96. In early August, peaks of 2,292 (overall hospitalizations, August 1) and 598 (patients in ICUs, August 8) were recorded. 

Vaccine rollout in Catalonia

As of October 26, 2021, 5,969,910 residents have been given the first dose of the vaccine, 75.6% of the total population. Out of those, 5,132,258 have also been administered a second dose (65.1% of the total population). 

A total of 5,862,731 residents are considered to be fully immunized (74.1%). Under 65s who have already had the virus are only required to have the first dose, and others have received a single-dose jab. Therefore, the % of two doses administered and % fully immunized do not match.

On Tuesday, it was announced that people who have received the single-shot Janssen Covid-19 will start to get booster shots from November 15.

Spain's Public Health Committee has approved giving these people a second dose of an mRNA vaccine, that is to say, either Pfizer or Moderna. 

Second doses will only be administered to people when at least three months have passed since they received the Johnson & Johnson jab.