Pandemic outbreak risk above ‘high’ threshold for first time in two months

The latest wave of the pandemic is seeing some indicators sharply rise. 

The Covid-19 outbreak risk has risen above the ‘high’ threshold for the first time in two months. 

In the latest update provided by health authorities on November 12, the key indicator rose above 100 for the first time since early September, and currently stands at 102. 

An outbreak risk of above 100 is considered to be 'high' risk and authorities deem anything above 200 'very high' risk. It is calculated using an iEPG index, which is found by multiplying the average spread of the virus over the past seven days by the cumulative incidence over the past two weeks.

The latest update shows that this pandemic indicator has doubled in less than two weeks, as it stood at 51 on October 31. 

The outbreak risk was above ‘very high’ levels for most of the summer before dropping to controlled levels in September and October. 

Equally, the coronavirus transmission rate is also rising sharply. The R value now stands at 1.48, meaning that, on average, every two people with Covid-19 will infect almost three others at the current rate of spread. 

This figure stood as low as 0.78 one month earlier, on October 12. 

Despite indicators such as these seeing increases, it is not yet severely being felt in hospitals. 

The number of patients hospitalized due to Covid-19 is gradually rising over the past week - from 312 on November 5 to 354 on November 11 - but over the past month, the number has remained stable at 300-350.

Additionally, the number of patients in intensive care is seeing the same trend. The latest data shows 85 patients in Catalonia in ICUs with the virus, the same figure as ten days earlier and slightly down on last month’s count. 

At the moment, health authorities do not plan on applying further restrictions to curb the latest trends.

Vaccination progress

The main reason that the rising indicators are not having a drastic effect on health centres is thanks to the vaccination programme. 

As of November 11, there are now over 6 million residents of Catalonia who have received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccination. In total, there are around 7.7 million inhabitants. 

Most of the jabs given currently are booster shots for those who require third doses. 

As of November 11, 2021, 6,000,554 residents have been given the first dose of the vaccine, 75.9% of the total population. Out of those, 5,166,789 have also been administered a second dose (65.5% of the total population).

A total of 5,902,286 residents are considered to be fully immunized (74.5%). Under 65s who have already had the virus are only required to have the first dose, and others have received a single-dose jab. Therefore, the % of two doses administered and % fully immunized do not match.