Pandemic in Catalonia worsens as it approaches European average

The sixth wave of the Covid-19 pandemic has not yet peaked in Catalonia. Transmissions detected via PCR or antigen test are still on the rise, increasing by 40% last week on the previous one.

Over the second week of December, 24,490 people tested positive, around 7,000 more than the first one, when 17,581 did.

This has resulted in an increasing incidence rate which has surpassed 400 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the last 14 days (IA14) for the first time since August 15, when the fifth wave of the pandemic was already waning.

Catalonia was among the territories in Europe with the lowest Covid-19 impact a month ago, as Catalan News reported, when transmissions began to spike elsewhere and neighboring countries once again began to impose restrictions.

Still better than European average

A month later, the situation is still better than in the vast majority of EU countries, but the impact of the virus is now approaching the European average.

According to December 10 figures gathered by Catalonia’s Polytechnic University (UPC) BIOCOMSC working group, Spain is no longer the lowest country in the EU and EFTA rankings, along with the UK – indeed, three countries have a better IA14, while six more do than Catalonia.

Bulgaria (388), Italy (326), and Romania (102) have some of the lowest 14-day rates, but the pandemic is much more out of control elsewhere.

In 12 out of the 32 countries listed, the IA14 surpasses 1,000 (with the Czech Republic and Slovakia topping the rankings at 2,200 and 2,117 respectively). It approaches this figure in many other countries, including Germany, with an IA14 of 941 – slightly above the UK, at 937, or France, at 856.

Recent podcast

Check out our recent Filling the Sink podcast on the pandemic, published on December 4. 

Over 1,000 hospitalized Covid patients

The rest of the pandemic indicators are also on the rise, with the increased pressure on hospitals concerning authorities.

Over 1,000 hospital beds are occupied by Covid-19 patients, something that had not happened since September 1. As of December 12, 1,078 people were hospitalized due to the virus, a 44% rise compared to a week before, when the figure stood at 748.

The number of patients in ICUs is also increasing rapidly, with 242 as of December 12, a level not seen in three months. This is roughly a quarter of the total ICU capacity in Catalonia's hospitals, estimated at between 900 and 1,000.

Additional restrictions will depend on ICUs

Dr. Magda Campins, the chair of Catalonia’s Covid-19 Scientific Advisory Committee, warned that the number of Covid patients in ICUs could reach 500 in a week and a half if the current growth rate continued.

In an interview with Ràdio4 and La2 public radio and TV broadcasters on Monday morning, the doctor, who is also the head of Preventive Medicine and Epidemiology at Vall d'Hebron Hospital in Barcelona, said that imposing new restrictions will depend on the number of people who require intensive care.

According to her, some hospitals are already postponing treatments for other diseases and conditions, adding that a quick rollout of booster shots for those above the age of 60 – already underway – is crucial.

The outbreak risk, now at 517, is also increasing, around a hundred more points compared to a week ago.

An outbreak risk of above 100 is considered to be 'high' risk and authorities deem anything above 200 'very high' risk. It is calculated using an EPG index, which is found by multiplying the average spread of the virus over the past seven days by the cumulative incidence over the past two weeks.

The transmission rate, currently 1.20, has remained quite stable over the past month barring a slight increase in mid-November when a high of 1.56 was seen on November 15.

As for ages, children 10 and under are the most affected, with an incidence rate of 701 over the last 14 days as of December 9.

Vaccinations for those between 5 and 11 will begin this Wednesday.