Outbreak risk continues steep incline but hospitalizations remain stable

New daily Covid-19 cases have continued rising for a fourth consecutive day, with 5,179 positive tests reported on Friday. This comes after 5,067 were reported on Thursday, 

The high number follows a pattern this week of highs not seen since the worst period of the third wave in January. 

From June 28-July 1, there have been 16,243 coronavirus cases reported in Catalonia. For the entire rest of the month, from June 1-27, there were 16,847 cases confirmed. In all of May, 25,743 cases were reported. 

The outbreak risk has risen from a low of 79 recorded on June 18, to 282 in the latest update. 

The outbreak risk is considered to be low at 30, moderate at 70, high at 100 and very high at 200. It is calculated using an iEPG index - found by multiplying the average spread of the virus over the past seven days by the cumulative incidence over the past two weeks. 

Additionally, the transmission rate has increased in tandem with the outbreak risk. Lows of 0.74 and 0.90 were recorded on May 18 and June 8 respectively, but this indicator has since grown to 1.71. 

This figure is the average number of other patients each Covid-19 positive case will transmit the virus to. 

Hospitalizations and ICU occupancy

Despite the surge in cases this week, the heightened contagion levels have not yet translated into increased hospitalizations or patients requiring intensive care. 

These two key pandemic indicators which have remained stable, largely due to the fact that the vaccination rollout plan has already protected the most vulnerable of the population, and the recent spike in cases are largely among younger demographics. In response to this, the vaccination scheme was opened up to all people over the age of 16 this week. 

As such, health authorities currently do not plan to reverse the course of progressively lifting Covid-19 restrictions, which has seen society and the economy significantly open up in the past weeks, and hope to never have to do so. 

As of July 1, 2021, there are 475 patients hospitalized in Catalonia due to Covid-19. This figure has remained relatively stable during this week of intensified contagion, with 467 people in hospital with the coronavirus on June 28, as well as 468 one week earlier. 

Hospitalizations have been going down steadily ever since a peak of 3,038 was seen on January 24, barring a small rise in April before the decline resumed. 

ICU patients have followed a similar pattern, with 115 patients currently requiring intensive care. The trend has been moving very clearly downward ever since a high of 731 was recorded on February 1, also with the exception of a brief spike in April.

Progressive move toward in-person work

The current Covid-19 measures in Catalonia have been extended a further week and will now apply until July 12. 

The same capacity measures and opening hours affecting bars, restaurants, shops, and other areas of society will remain in force.

The 10-person cap on gatherings was lifted also on June 21, although larger groups of people are not advised to get together.

You can find detailed information of what Covid-19 measures are in force in Catalonia here.

The civil protection body has also given their approval for companies and employees to gradually return to in-person workplaces, although they still urge to continue remote working whenever possible.