Covid transmission rate could 'skyrocket' after increase in journeys over Easter

The Covid-19 transmission rate (Rt) could "skyrocket" after Easter in Catalonia if the public does not abide by the regulations set by authorities for the period March 26 to April 9.

The measures include being able to leave one's county of residence only as long as it is with other members of the same social bubble.

Also over Easter, private gatherings will not be allowed except for between people who live together, outdoor gatherings can only be a maximum of six people, and indoors the cap is set at four. Regional land borders will be closed across Spain, and in order to enter Catalonia from France by road, a negative PCR test will be compulsory.

Transmission rate might surge to 1.3

A researcher at Catalonia’s Polytechnic University (UPC) and member of the Computational Biology and Complex Systems Group (BIOCOM-SC), Clara Prats, warned in a RAC1 radio station interview on Sunday that the transmission rate – the number of people each positive case is transmitting the virus to –could quickly increase to 1.30 after the holiday.

The Rt is now at 1.13 as of March 28, and over 1 concerns authorities. 

According to Prats, if people stick to the rules, no significant increase should be recorded, but otherwise, mixing bubbles is likely to carry "a surge in transmissions."

She also said that the current slight upwards trend in transmissions will sharpen more after the effects of the first weekends without county-level lockdown are noticed.

Authorities have also recently shown their concern at Easter.

Senior health official March Ramentol asked the public last week to travel exclusively with their household, because movement "is not a risk in itself, but what is a risk is the possibility that separate bubbles come into contact." 

Visitors travel to coastal and inland areas of Catalonia

Indeed, last weekend holiday travel related to the Easter break began, with 410,000 vehicles leaving the Barcelona area by Saturday afternoon – lower than expected, 440,000, but 2.7% higher than the previous weekend. Yet, when compared to an equivalent weekend of 2019, there were 17.4% fewer vehicles than expected.

Roads with heavy traffic included the C-55, the GI-200 in Blanes, the C-32 in Cabrera de Mar, the C-32 in Sitges and the N-340 in Vallirana and El Vendrell.

Indeed, more visitors than usual were expected in coastal towns like Sitges and Platja d'Aro, but also inland, with activities such as wine tourism in the Tarragona area.

Bookings for late March and Easter skyrocketed when the county-level lockdown was lifted, with inland cottages and accommodation in the Pyrenees among the most popular destinations.