Esquerra Republicana head into Catalan election at risk of relinquishing control of government

Esquerra Republicana (ERC) head into the May 12 Catalan election as the sole party in a minority government in Catalonia after a turbulent legislature that ended up finishing earlier than expected. 

The left-leaning pro-independence party have been governing alone since October 2022, when fellow pro-independence Junts per Catalunya decided to leave the coalition cabinet following weeks of heightening tensions. This left Esquerra ruling the government alone, with the support of only 33 of a total of 135 MPs in parliament.

In this context, any bill that the government presented needed the support of at least two opposition parties, a situation that ultimately led to the downfall of this mandate when the 2024 budgets were rejected, resulting in the president calling elections ahead of the scheduled date of early 2025. 

Sitting president Pere Aragonès will lead ERC into the election after the party decided to back the man who has managed the Catalan government since September 2020, when former president Quim Torra was ousted from power after being found guilty of disobedience for refusing to remove signs deemed partisan from public buildings during a previous election campaign. Aragonès’ leadership was then solidified in the February 2021 election.

Their slogan for the election is ‘Al costat de la gent, al costat de Catalunya’, meaning ‘On the side of the people, on the side of Catalonia’.

‘Clarity Act’ for independence

Esquerra Republicana are in favor of Catalan independence, but their approach to seeking to split from Spain differs from that of the other mainstream pro-independence party, Junts per Catalunya. While Junts hold a more confrontational stance with Spain, Esquerra aim to negotiate an agreed referendum.

After the 2017 referendum and the suspended unilateral declaration of independence failed to bring about an independent Catalonia, political parties in favor of splitting from Spain have been trying to figure out how best to go about their stated aim.

During his presidency, Aragonès’ plan has been to emulate the ‘Clarity Act’ of Canadian region Quebec: “an agreement that establishes when and how we can exercise the right to decide again." With those words in September 2022, Aragonès raised the prospect of a Clarity Act on a future independence referendum agreed with the central Spanish government. Six months later, he launched an academic committee to explore the idea.

The Clarity Act would provide for “a referendum which would be recognized as legitimate by all parties whatever the outcome,” Aragonès previously explained when presenting his proposal. “I think this is the best way, in fact, I think this is the only appropriate way forward for Catalonia if we want to be an independent state within the European Union with an economy which would be a lot more prosperous.”

Unsurprisingly, the idea was shot down by the Spanish government, who are adamant that they will not agree to Catalan independence or a referendum, while it was also critically questioned by Junts, who are highly skeptical of negotiating with Spain in general.  

Succinctly outlining his priorities for another term in office at a campaign rally, Aragonès vowed that Catalonia needs “the basis for an agreed independence referendum that is recognized internationally, a new financial model that puts an end to the plundering of €22 billion from our country, and to strengthen the welfare state and the Catalan language.”

Social policies and large-scale projects

Social policies are another key tenet of Esquerra’s manifesto. The republican party is highlighting their achievements in government in this area during the campaign trail, from menstrual equality with paid medical leave for debilitating period pain and free reusable period products, rent caps as part of the housing law, and the hiring of more Mossos d’Esquadra police officers. 

“Make no mistake, if what shouldn’t happen happens on May 12, some will dismantle the feminist policies that we’ve carried out, the same who say that feminism has gone too far,” Aragonès warned at a campaign event.  

The party aims to make childcare and education free for all from the ages of 0-3, hire more medical professionals and teachers, and build more social housing units. 

The last legislature has been marked by a number of large-scale projects that Catalonia has had to make decisions on, which have drawn controversy and ire from various corners of the political spectrum, depending on different parties’ points of view. Esquerra, leading the Catalan government, have been central to these projects and debates. 

The proposed Hard Rock casino-hotel complex was one of the biggest sticking points during ERC’s last mandate. Esquerra were not overly enthusiastic about going forward with the Hard Rock project but included it in the 2023 budget deal as demanded by the Socialists. One year later, the left-wing Comuns drew a hard line at Hard Rock and refused to back the 2024 budgets if Aragonès did not commit to halting the casino plans. 

Discussions about expanding Barcelona’s airport and turning it into an international hub have been going on in Catalonia for many years now. However, plans to increase the facility’s capacity would mean extending the runway into the surrounding La Ricarda wetlands, a natural area rich in biodiversity with European protection. Environmentalists are against any plans to expand the airport, while those of a pro-business persuasion are in favor. Esquerra, meanwhile, have positioned themselves on the fence somewhat, arguing they are for the economic boost the expansion would imply, but not at the cost of the loss of the nearby delta and wetlands. 

Tourism, or a perceived over-tourism from many local neighborhood associations, has become one of the key issues in Catalonia in recent years, as the number of visitors to our shores grows year after year, with many groups complaining of having their streets packed every summer, and rents subsequently rising. 

An airport expansion would likely mean an increase in tourism in the long term, while the 2024 America’s Cup is also expected to bring thousands more to the city this year, an international sailing competition that will be hosted in Barcelona this year which Esquerra assisted in securing for the city while they controlled the government. 

During the last mandate, Aragonès’ executive agreed on the full transfer of control from Spain to Catalonia over the commuter rail system, Rodalies. A political commission to oversee the process was set up in February. The Catalan president has also accused the Catalan Socialists and Junts of not making this a priority on their political agendas. 

Esquerra have proposed changing the financial model in Catalonia, hoping to keep 100% of taxes collected in the territory in the territory. A longstanding issue in the independence camp, Catalonia's finance department calculated in September 2023 that the deficit between what it contributes to the Spanish purse and the quantity invested back in Catalonia stood at €21.982 billion in 2021, equivalent to 9.6% of the GDP.

Poll predictions 

The last poll by the Catalan government-funded survey agency released on the first day of the election campaign predicted Esquerra (31-37 seats) to edge Junts (28-34) in second place, but with both parties significantly behind the Socialists (40-47).

Most other polls, though, predict Junts to beat Esquerra to second place - and first among the pro-independence camp. If the pro-independence camp wins a majority, then whoever wins the head-to-head between Esquerra and Junts will have the impetus to name their candidate the next president. 

The far-left pro-independence CUP are forecast to take between 4-8 seats, according to the Catalan polling agency. Should these predicted results come to fruition, it would likely mean that the pro-independence majority in the chamber is kept, but this is far from certain. 

With a pro-independence majority among the three parties, Esquerra, Junts, and CUP could once again band together to form another government, as the bloc in one form or another has governed Catalonia since 2010.

However, should the combined three fall short of the 68-seat threshold, then another possible scenario could be a left-wing coalition arrangement between the Socialists and Esquerra, and possibly with the support of Comuns Sumar, with Pere Aragonès giving up the presidency for Salvador Illa. This would be a hugely symbolic move, however, as it would be the first time a party explicitly in favor of Spanish unity for Catalonia would be in government since the Socialists were back in 2010.