Socialists would win, again, a Catalan election amid post-election talks, survey says

The Catalan Socialist party would win, once again, the Catalan election if it were to take place today, according to the CEO poll published on Thursday by the government-funded survey agency.

The party would win between 39 and 45 seats. In the May 12 election, the Socialists won 42 MPs. As in the last ballot, they would surpass Catalan pro-independence Junts+ (31-36) and Esquerra Republicana (19-24). The conservative People's Party would be the fourth most-voted party, with 13-18 seats.

On May 12, Junts+ obtained 35 seats, ERC 20, and the PP 15.

Meanwhile, Spanish far-right Vox would have between 7 and 11 representatives (currently 11), followed by the left-wing Comuns-Sumar coalition with 5 to 8 seats (6 on May 12), the pro-independence far-left CUP party would win 1 to 6 seats (4), and the Catalan far-right Aliança Catalana would have 1 to 4 representatives (2).

With these results, a left-wing coalition led by the Socialists with Esquerra and Comuns, they would be able to have an absolute majority, which stands at 68 seats, as they would add up between 63 to 77 seats.

On the other hand, pro-independence forces without Aliança Catalana would not have enough support as they would win between 51 and 66 seats.

The survey was conducted between June 10 and July 8, after the European Parliament election and once pro-independence Junts+ candidate Josep Rull was named Catalan parliament speaker. Around 2,000 people responded during this period, which coincided with the amnesty law coming into force.

Similar results amid post-election talks

On May 12, Catalan voters cast their ballots, leaving a hung parliament with no absolute majority, and complicated agreements were needed. Since then, political parties have been negotiating to elect the next Catalan president.

There are two main candidates among MPs: Socialist Salvador Illa and Junts+ Carles Puigdemont. However, neither has enough support, which is why Rull had to call a mock presidential bid debate to start a countdown.

If there is no president-elect by August 26, Catalans must go back to the polls in October. However, around 65% of the surveyed think Illa will be the next leader, as opposed to the 14% who believe Puigdemont will lead the cabinet.

Around 8% of those questioned do not see any candidate gaining enough support and for a snap election to be called again.

Trust or threats

Post-election talks continue with the Socialists as the main contender. On Tuesday, the Spanish government has all their trust in Salvador Illa and "do not believe there will not be a government in Catalonia," María Jesús Montero, Spanish vice president.

Montero said they have the "utmost trust" in the negotiations, something which members of Esquerra Republicana threaten.

"If there is no deal by the end of July, we will leave the talks," Marta Rovira, secretary general of ERC, said during a press conference on Monday.

"By the end of July, we have to know if the pool is full or empty," share added, as they do not want to have a "last minute negotiation" and to be blamed for elections repeated.

"What we want is a draft agreement by the end of the month, as we do not want to be forced to have to reach a quick one in August as it will be a bad deal," Rovira said.

Among ERC's requests are defending the Catalan language, reinforcing public services, enforcing progressive policies, and establishing a special financing system in Catalonia that is differentiated from the general one in Spain.