Catalan elections: is Catalonia’s independence push still a thing?

Catalonia has been governed by parties explicitly in favor of splitting from Spain ever since 2010, and the last decade has seen the independence movement grow to unprecedented heights, before tensions brought cracks in the bloc’s unity to the surface.

This movement culminated in the 2017 independence referendum, a vote deemed illegal by Spanish courts which saw an overwhelming majority return a ‘yes’ vote, but which was largely ignored by those in favor of Spanish unity who rejected its legitimacy. 

The movement has also seen enormous rallies over the last decade, gathering up to 1.8 million people on the streets of Barcelona for the 2014 National Day pro-independence protest. 

Also notable were the October 2019 riots in response to the sentencing of some of the leaders of the 2017 referendum. That week, most activity was shut down at Barcelona airport for a day, while there were nightly clashes between angry protesters and police officers. Some weeks later, groups would block the AP-7 highway near the French border. 

But in recent years, with the Socialists in the Spanish government taking a lighter-touch approach to the Catalan question, tensions have eased on both sides. 

First, the independence leaders who had been jailed and sentenced for organizing the referendum were pardoned and released from jail. Soon they, and plenty more independence figures facing charges or who have already been sentenced, will also be given an amnesty, which will likely allow former Catalan president Carles Puigdemont to return to his home country for the first time since 2017.

Once the amnesty is in effect, which is expected to be during the summer 2024, Puigdemont and other independence leaders, such as Esquerra party president Oriol Junqueras, will officially be able to return to frontline politics.

Different approaches for independence 

The last term began with a coalition between ERC and Junts, but finished with Esquerra governing solo since October 2022 after tensions became insurmountable in the cabinet. 

Ideologically, Esquerra focus more on social policies and are left-leaning, while Junts are more of a liberal, pro-business party. Yet, it was perhaps the parties’ approach towards their common goal, Catalan independence, that most brought fractures to the fore. 

ERC aim to negotiate an agreed referendum with Spain and let Catalans vote with the recognition of the international community already secured.

During his presidency, Aragonès’ plan has been to emulate the ‘Clarity Act’ of Canadian region Quebec: “an agreement that establishes when and how we can exercise the right to decide again." With those words in September 2022, Aragonès raised the prospect of a Clarity Act on a future independence referendum agreed with the central Spanish government. Six months later, he launched an academic committee to explore the idea.

The Clarity Act would provide for “a referendum which would be recognized as legitimate by all parties whatever the outcome,” Aragonès previously explained when presenting his proposal. “I think this is the best way, in fact, I think this is the only appropriate way forward for Catalonia if we want to be an independent state within the European Union with an economy which would be a lot more prosperous.”

Unsurprisingly, the idea was shot down by the Spanish government, who are adamant that they will not agree to Catalan independence or a referendum, while it was also critically questioned by Junts, who are highly skeptical of negotiating with Spain in general.  

Junts+, led into this election by Carles Puigdemont, the former Catalan president who presided over the 2017 referendum, take a more confrontational stance with Spain, and have before underlined the need to fulfill the mandate of the 2017 referendum.

Yet, the message from the party has shifted slightly during this campaign to now focusing on a new, future referendum, as they have challenged Pedro Sánchez to accept an independence referendum if he "wants to save democracy." 

"There will be no full democracy in Spain as long as the nations that survive trapped within them cannot decide our future," Jordi Turull warned at a campaign event in Mollerussa, western Catalonia. 

Junts+ is pushing for an agreed referendum as the only alternative to the 2017 vote, but says that Catalonia needs to prepare itself for a unilateral declaration in the meantime. 

Key minority players

Elsewhere, the far-left CUP have historically been key players in the pro-independence majority in the Catalan parliament, ensuring that administrations in favor of splitting from Spain are in control of the government. 

CUP is open to setting a new date for a self-determination referendum "as a tool of confrontation with Spain," as explained by Laia Estrada, their main candidate in the election. 

She assured that the far-left group "will not waste a tool" such as a public consultation on independence to "overwhelm Spain and put it back in check." She also revealed that her party brought the same idea up during the last legislature “and both ERC and Junts voted no." 

Elsewhere, new this election is Aliança Catalana, a far-right pro-independence party that could make its first appearance in the chamber. Their candidate, Sílvia Orriols, made her name in Ripoll, northern Catalonia, where she won the mayorship on an anti-immigration ticket. 

The pro-independence bloc is already fraught among the two mainstream parties, while CUP’s strong anti-capitalist stance has previously led to a slightly uncomfortable relationship, although they have generally stayed in the opposition while supporting ERC and Junts.

If Aliança Catalana win representation in the chamber for the first time then the pro-independence bloc will be even more fraught, consisting of both far-right and far-left elements making consensus extremely difficult on some proposals. 

Socialists push for 2006 Statute of Autonomy

The word ‘referendum’ does not appear even once in the electoral program of the Catalan Socialists, and the party argues that the idea is divisive. Instead, Salvador Illa believes in a "new phase" of deployment of the 2006 Statute of Autonomy.

The first draft of the statute was approved in 2006 by an absolute majority in the Catalan parliament, with all parties voting in favor except for the People’s Party. The statute expanded Catalonia’s singularity within the Spanish state, defining it as a nation, strengthened the protection and institutional importance of the Catalan language, and updated the devolved powers system by which Spain transferred political responsibilities to Catalan authorities.

The final approved text was a watered-down version of the first draft, but some years later the Constitutional Court struck out many of the statute’s key articles, infuriating pro-independence supporters and the Socialist party alike, and setting in motion a political spiral that many view as foundational to the current day independence movement. 

Now, the Catalan Socialists have their sights set on a "new stage" for Catalonia, betting that the system of "an almost federal Spain" will improve things substantively for Catalonia. 

Independence losing prominence in campaign ads

The issue of independence is losing prominence in party campaign election videos, which instead puts more focus on public services. 

Junts+ sets the main message as the return of Carles Puigdemont, and is the only party that explicitly uses the word ‘independence.’ 

ERC highlights the achievements of president Pere Aragonès in office and places the negotiation of a referendum and better financing as a roadmap for the way forward. 

CUP’s campaign video shows an image of a 2017 independence referendum ballot box. 

The Socialists emphasize public services and dialogue, and both Comuns and CUP rail against the Hard Rock casino-hotel project. 

Ciudadanos uses artificial intelligence imagery to show Carles Puigdemont in prison, the People’s Party makes no reference to pro-independence parties, while Vox rails against Pere Aragonès, Carles Puigdemont, and Salvador Illa.  

Parliamentary majority at risk?

Currently there are three parties in favor of independence in the Catalan parliament, Esquerra Republicana, Junts per Catalunya, and CUP, who hold a combined 73 seats, with 68 needed for a majority. 

Polls indicate a clear win for the Socialists, while the pro-independence majority looks to be at risk of being lost. 

The CEO, the Catalan government-funded polling agency, predicts that there will likely be a pro-independence majority after May 12, but with enough margin so as this is not guaranteed. They forecast ERC to win 31-37 seats, Junts+ to take 28-34, CUP to win 4-8, and a new party, Aliança Catalana, to possibly break into the parliament with 0-2 MPs elected. These results would give a low of 63 and a high of 81 seats in the parliament, with a mid-point of 72, still enough for a parliamentary majority. 

The CIS, the Spanish polling agency, predicts Junts+ to take 28-30, ERC to win 27-28, CUP to have 5-7, while Aliança Catalan could also win between 0-2. With these results, the pro-independence bloc would be left with between 60-67 seats in the chamber, not enough for a majority.