Catalan election exit polls: Socialists clear winner but pro-independence majority could be retained

Voting has closed in the 2024 Catalan election, and exit polls point to the Socialists coming out on top with 37-40 seats, according to Catalan public broadcaster 3Cat. 

This, however, would leave them far short of a majority of 68 in the chamber, a threshold which could be met by the sum of the pro-independence bloc, led by Junts+ with a projected 33-36 seats. They would be followed by fellow pro-independence Esquerra Republicana, with 24-27, who have been in power alone in the Catalan government heading into the vote.

Following them would be far-right Vox, who are projected to win 10-11 seats in the Catalan parliament and the conservative People’s Party with 9-12, far-left pro-independence CUP with 6-8, left-wing Comuns Sumar with 6-7, and far-right pro-independence Aliança Catalana making it to the parliament for the first time with 1-3 MPs. 

In terms of the vote share, the Socialists again lead the pack with 27.1% of the popular vote, followed by Junts+ with 22.1%, ERC (17%), PP (8.1%), Vox (7.2%), Comuns (6.2%), CUP (5.5%), and AC (3.2%).

Other exit polls

According to Catalan news outlet El Nacional, one quarter of all votes will go to the Socialists’ party, earning them 36-39 seats.

Junts+ will also earn more than one in every five votes, with 21.84%, winning them 33-36 seats, ahead of Esquerra Republicana who will stand at 15.77% and 22-24 MPs.

The same news outlet says that Vox will edge the People’s Party by around 10,000 votes, earning them 12-13 seats, ahead of the prediction for the People’s Party of 11-13 seats.

Comuns Sumar will follow behind, taking around 200,000 votes, 6.17% of the total, giving them 5-8 seats. Behind them will be CUP with 4-7 seats (4.35%) and Aliança Catalana earning over 140,000 votes in their first parliamentary election, winning 3-6 seats.