Barcelona local elections: Three candidates neck and neck, final polls say

'Every vote counts,' the saying goes, and in Barcelona's local elections, this could be more true than ever. Three of the main candidates could end up with the same number of seats in the council if polls are correct. But while the projected number of councilors is similar in all polls, the candidate with the most votes is not.

Spain's electoral legislation, dating back to 1985, does not allow the publication of any polls in the last five days before election day, which is why so many were published during the weekend and on Monday, ahead of the local elections on May 28.

El Periódico and El País: Socialist Collboni has win within reach

One of the latest, published on Sunday night by the Catalan El Periódico newspaper, expects Socialist Jaume Collboni to top the poll with 11 to 12 seats and 21.9% of the vote. In second place would be Xavier Trias, the Trias per Barcelona candidate backed by pro-independence Junts, on 10 to 11 seats (21.3% of the votes), followed by Barcelona en Comú candidate and incumbent mayor Ada Colau, with 10 to 11 seats and 20% of the votes.

The fourth main candidate, Ernest Maragall, of Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC), has seen his chances reduced, according to polls, with El Periódico putting him on 6 to 7 seats and 13% of votes. 

In the 2019 local elections, Maragall topped the poll, winning 10 seats.

The poll published by El Periódico also states that 320,000 voters (out of 1.1 million) are still undecided on who to vote for.

The Spanish newspaper El País also sees Collboni as the most likely candidate to come first this Sunday, with 10 councilors (21.9% of the vote). Junts per Catalunya (19.5%) and Barcelona en Comú (18%) would tie with 9, while Esquerra (14.2%) would get 7 representatives.

The People's Party (4 councilors, 8.2% of the votes) and far-right Vox (2, and 5.9%) would be the only other parties entering the city council.

El Nacional: Xavier Trias tops poll

But the El Periódico poll was not the only one published this week. Catalan media outlet El Nacional says Trias per Barcelona candidate, Xavier Trias, former mayor from 2011 to 2015, will win with 10 representatives and 21.38% of votes, followed by the Socialists (9-10 and 20.58%), and then Barcelona en Comú (9-10 and 20.52%).

In this poll, ERC is also the fourth party with 6-7 seats, followed by the conservative People's Party (3 and 6.29%) and far-right Vox (0-2 and 5.01%). If these results end up being confirmed, the far-right party will enter Barcelona's city council for the first time.

The liberal Valents and Ciudadanos parties and far-left CUP will not get enough votes to gain representation in the council, falling short of the 5% threshold required.

Diari Ara: mayor Colau to win again with 10 councilors

Another survey, published by Diari Ara on Sunday, estimates that mayor Colau could edge ahead in her race to win the vote, winning 10 seats and 20.5% of the ballots. 

The Socialists and Trias per Barcelona would tie on 8 seats and 18% of the vote, while Esquerra's Ernest Maragall would be out of the race to top the election, with 6 councilors and 13% of the votes. 

Far-right Vox (3 councilors, 8%), far-left CUP (3 and 7%) and the People's Party (0 to 3, 6% of the ballots) would be in a good position to get councilors, unlike Ciudadanos and Valents.

Listen to the podcast below for everything you need to know about Sunday's local elections across Catalonia.